392
FONT13 KNHC 171436
PWSAT3
HURRICANE HELENE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006
1500 UTC SUN SEP 17 2006
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HELENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
20.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 49.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
90 KTS...105 MPH...165 KM/HR.
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 10(16)
BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7)
BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3)
BARBUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)
ANTIGUA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3)
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HR POSITIONS KT
12 213N 501W 34 98 1(99) X(99) 1(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
12 213N 501W 50 86 6(92) X(92) X(92) 1(93) X(93) X(93)
12 213N 501W 64 59 15(74) X(74) 1(75) X(75) X(75) X(75)
24 225N 515W 34 54 37(91) 4(95) 2(97) X(97) X(97) X(97)
24 225N 515W 50 8 56(64) 9(73) 1(74) 2(76) X(76) X(76)
24 225N 515W 64 2 39(41) 11(52) 1(53) 1(54) 1(55) X(55)
36 230N 530W 34 6 51(57) 24(81) 6(87) 3(90) X(90) 1(91)
36 230N 530W 50 X 21(21) 31(52) 8(60) 4(64) 1(65) X(65)
36 230N 530W 64 X 8( 8) 24(32) 7(39) 2(41) 1(42) X(42)
48 235N 545W 34 2 14(16) 37(53) 17(70) 9(79) 2(81) 1(82)
48 235N 545W 50 X 3( 3) 21(24) 17(41) 8(49) 3(52) X(52)
48 235N 545W 64 X X( X) 11(11) 12(23) 6(29) 2(31) X(31)
72 245N 570W 34 X 1( 1) 11(12) 20(32) 24(56) 9(65) 2(67)
72 245N 570W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 19(29) 6(35) 1(36)
72 245N 570W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 10(14) 4(18) 1(19)
96 270N 590W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 20(26) 18(44) 8(52)
96 270N 590W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 11(19) 3(22)
96 270N 590W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) 3(12)
120 300N 595W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 15(21) 12(33)
120 300N 595W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 7(15)
120 300N 595W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6)
- - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 95 100 100 95 90 85 80
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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