730 
 WTNT24 KNHC 030849
 TCMAT4
 
 HURRICANE MATTHEW FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  21
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142016
 0900 UTC MON OCT 03 2016
 
 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
 NONE.
 
 SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
 A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
 * JAMAICA
 * HAITI
 * CUBAN PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...HOLGUIN...
 GRANMA...AND LAS TUNAS
 * SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...
 ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...LONG CAY...AND RAGGED ISLAND
 
 A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
 * CUBAN PROVINCE OF CAMAGUEY
 * TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
 * CENTRAL BAHAMAS...INCLUDING LONG ISLAND...EXUMA...RUM CAY...
 SAN
 SALVADOR...AND CAT ISLAND
 
 A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
 * DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA WESTWARD TO THE BORDER WITH HAITI
 
 A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
 * DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM PUERTO PLATA WESTWARD TO THE BORDER WITH
 HAITI
 
 INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN HISPANIOLA AND IN THE BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR
 THE PROGRESS OF MATTHEW.
 
 A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
 SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.  A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-
 FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT
 OR DANGEROUS.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
 RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
 
 A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
 WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE
 THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...
 CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.
 
 A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
 EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
 A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
 POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
 
 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N  74.9W AT 03/0900Z
 POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
 PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT   5 KT
 
 ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  943 MB
 EYE DIAMETER  15 NM
 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
 64 KT....... 25NE  25SE  20SW  25NW.
 50 KT....... 50NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
 34 KT.......170NE 100SE  90SW 110NW.
 12 FT SEAS..240NE 180SE 180SW 240NW.
 WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
 MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
 REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N  74.9W AT 03/0900Z
 AT 03/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.9N  75.0W
 
 FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 16.2N  74.9W
 MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
 64 KT... 25NE  25SE  20SW  25NW.
 50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
 34 KT...170NE 100SE  90SW 110NW.
 
 FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 17.9N  74.7W
 MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
 64 KT... 25NE  25SE  20SW  25NW.
 50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
 34 KT...160NE 100SE  90SW 120NW.
 
 FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 19.7N  74.6W
 MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
 64 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  25NW.
 50 KT... 70NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.
 34 KT...160NE 110SE  90SW 140NW.
 
 FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 21.4N  74.8W
 MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
 50 KT... 80NE  80SE  50SW  60NW.
 34 KT...180NE 140SE 100SW 150NW.
 
 FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 24.6N  75.9W
 MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
 50 KT... 90NE  80SE  50SW  60NW.
 34 KT...180NE 170SE 100SW 150NW.
 
 EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
 ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
 OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 27.6N  76.9W
 MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
 
 OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 30.8N  77.0W
 MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
 
 REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.2N  74.9W
 
 NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/1500Z
 
 $$
 FORECASTER BROWN