359 
 WTNT22 KNHC 301445
 TCMAT2
 HURRICANE EARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  21
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072010
 1500 UTC MON AUG 30 2010
  
 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
  
 A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE PUERTO RICAN ISLANDS OF
 CULEBRA AND VIEQUES.
  
 THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA HAS CHANGED THE HURRICANE
 WARNING FOR ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...AND NEVIS
 TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.
  
 THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
 THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.
  
 SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
  
 A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
 * ANGUILLA
 * SAINT MARTIN AND SAINT BARTHELEMY
 * ST. MAARTEN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS
 * BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
 * U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
 * PUERTO RICAN ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES
  
 A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
 * PUERTO RICO
  
 A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
 * ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...AND NEVIS
 * PUERTO RICO
  
 A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
 * TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
  
 HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING
 AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS.  PREPARATIONS
 TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN COMPLETED.
  
 HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS
 CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO.
  
 A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
 POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
  
 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N  63.6W AT 30/1500Z
 POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
  
 PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT  13 KT
  
 ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  960 MB
 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT.
 64 KT....... 50NE  40SE  25SW  35NW.
 50 KT....... 90NE  90SE  50SW  70NW.
 34 KT.......160NE 150SE 100SW 140NW.
 12 FT SEAS..320NE 170SE 100SW 160NW.
 WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
 MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
  
 REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N  63.6W AT 30/1500Z
 AT 30/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.5N  63.0W
  
 FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 19.5N  65.1W
 MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
 64 KT... 50NE  40SE  25SW  35NW.
 50 KT... 90NE  90SE  50SW  70NW.
 34 KT...160NE 150SE 100SW 140NW.
  
 FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 21.0N  67.0W
 MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT.
 64 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  40NW.
 50 KT...100NE 100SE  60SW  80NW.
 34 KT...175NE 160SE 110SW 150NW.
  
 FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 22.8N  68.7W
 MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT.
 64 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  40NW.
 50 KT...100NE 100SE  60SW  80NW.
 34 KT...175NE 160SE 110SW 150NW.
  
 FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 25.2N  70.6W
 MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
 50 KT...110NE 100SE  60SW  90NW.
 34 KT...180NE 180SE 120SW 160NW.
  
 FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 31.0N  73.5W
 MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
 50 KT...120NE 110SE  70SW  90NW.
 34 KT...200NE 180SE 130SW 160NW.
  
 EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
 ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
  
 OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 37.5N  71.5W
 MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
  
 OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 45.5N  63.0W...INLAND
 MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
  
 REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.7N  63.6W
  
 NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/2100Z
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BROWN/BERG