428 
 WTPZ43 KNHC 022039
 TCDEP3
 HURRICANE JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER  21
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP132009
 200 PM PDT WED SEP 02 2009
  
 THE CENTER OF JIMENA HAS MADE LANDFALL ON THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA
 CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WITH AN ESTIMATED INTENSITY OF 75-80 KT.  THE
 FORECAST TRACK KEEPS THE CENTER INLAND FOR THE NEXT 24-30 HR BEFORE
 EMERGING OVER THE PACIFIC WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.  THE PACIFIC
 WATERS ALONG THE TRACK ARE COLD...AND THE FORECAST VERTICAL WIND
 SHEAR INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER 24 HR.  THUS...THE CYCLONE
 SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN...BECOMING A TROPICAL STORM LATER
 TONIGHT...A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN 36-48 HR...AND A REMNANT LOW BY
 72 HR.  THERE IS A CHANCE THE CENTER COULD BRIEFLY EMERGE OVER THE
 GULF OF CALIFORNIA TONIGHT...BUT IF THIS HAPPENS IT WILL LIKELY NOT
 STAY THERE LONG ENOUGH TO AFFECT THE INTENSITY OF JIMENA.
  
 THE INITIAL MOTION IS 350/11.  ALL GUIDANCE AGREES THAT JIMENA
 SHOULD DECELERATE AND TURN NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 HR OR
 SO AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE.  THE BULK
 OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE SUBSEQUENTLY MOVES JIMENA SLOWLY WESTWARD
 INTO THE PACIFIC...A MOTION THAT SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL THE SYSTEM
 DISSIPATES.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS
 FORECAST...NUDGED A LITTLE NORTHWARD DUE TO THE INITIAL POSITION
 AND MOTION.
  
 INTERESTS IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA ARE ADVISED THAT STRONG
 WINDS WILL PRECEDE THE ARRIVAL OF THE CENTER BY SEVERAL HOURS...SO
 PREPARATIONS NEED TO BE COMPLETED VERY SOON.  REMEMBER NOT TO FOCUS
 ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK SINCE DANGEROUS IMPACTS EXTEND SOME
 DISTANCE FROM THE CENTER.
  
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      02/2100Z 26.4N 112.3W    75 KT
  12HR VT     03/0600Z 27.4N 112.7W    60 KT...INLAND
  24HR VT     03/1800Z 28.1N 113.3W    45 KT...INLAND
  36HR VT     04/0600Z 28.2N 114.2W    35 KT...OVER WATER
  48HR VT     04/1800Z 28.1N 114.7W    30 KT
  72HR VT     05/1800Z 28.0N 115.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
  96HR VT     06/1800Z 28.0N 116.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 120HR VT     07/1800Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BEVEN