054 
 WTPZ42 KNHC 231438
 TCDEP2
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION IVO DISCUSSION NUMBER  21
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP122007
 800 AM PDT SUN SEP 23 2007
  
 THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF IVO CONSISTS OF A SMALL CLUSTER OF
 CONVECTION LOCATED NORTHWEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. 
 AN 0850 UTC MICROWAVE PASS FROM AMSR-E AS WELL AS THE FIRST COUPLE
 OF VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES REVEAL THAT THE CENTER IS SLIGHTLY SOUTH
 AND WEST OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY POSITION.  WITH SUCH A POORLY-
 DEFINED MINIMALLY-CONVECTIVE CLOUD PATTERN AND DATA T-NUMBERS FROM
 SAB AND TAFB RANGING FROM 25 TO 30 KT...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS
 BEEN LOWERED TO 25 KT.
  
 THE SYSTEM IS ON THE VERGE OF DEGENERATING INTO A REMNANT LOW AND IS
 MOVING SLOWLY TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST...OR 060/4.  EVEN THOUGH SOME
 OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS TAKE IVO TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST...THE
 INITIALIZATION OF THESE MODELS WERE DEPICTING IVO AS A STRONGER
 CYCLONE.  ON THE OTHER HAND...THE GFS...GFDL...AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS
 APPEAR TO INITIALIZE THE CYCLONE MORE REALISTICALLY AND DRIFT IVO
 ON A SLOW EASTWARD TRACK.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY
 SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE AND SHOWS THE REMNANTS OF
 IVO MOVING OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
 PENINSULA LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY TOMORROW.  IT REMAINS HIGHLY
 POSSIBLE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION COULD PASS JUST SOUTH OF
 THE PENINSULA.
 
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      23/1500Z 22.1N 111.4W    25 KT
  12HR VT     24/0000Z 22.6N 110.6W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  24HR VT     24/1200Z 23.2N 109.7W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  36HR VT     25/0000Z 23.8N 109.1W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  48HR VT     25/1200Z 24.5N 108.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  72HR VT     26/1200Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER MAINELLI