482 
 WTPZ44 KNHC 202026
 TCDEP4
 TROPICAL STORM HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER  21
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP092006
 200 PM PDT SUN AUG 20 2006
 
 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A SHEARED CYCLONE WITH A PARTIALLY-
 EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CENTER TO THE SOUTHWEST OF DISORGANIZED
 CONVECTION. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS CONTINUE TO PLUMMET AND THE
 INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 50 KT. A RAPID WEAKENING IS LIKELY
 DUE TO COLD WATER... HIGH SHEAR AND STABLE AIR. ALL SIGNS POINT TO
 THE TROPICAL CYCLONE DISSIPATING SOMETIME TOMORROW... AS INDICATED
 BY THE SHIPS AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE MODELS. 
 
 HECTOR IS MOVING BETWEEN WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST ABOUT AT 9
 KT... AND SHOULD CONTINUE IN ABOUT THIS FASHION FOR A DAY OR SO.
 THEREAFTER A LEFT TURN IS LIKELY DUE TO THE CYCLONE BECOMING MUCH
 WEAKER AND BECOMING STEERED BY ONLY LOW-LEVEL RIDGING. THE FORECAST
 TRACK IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE... STILL
 DISCOUNTING THE MODELS THAT KEEP HECTOR AS A POWERFUL SYSTEM DURING
 THE PERIOD... AND IS CLOSEST TO THE BAM SHALLOW WHICH OFTEN 
 HANDLES THESE TYPES OF WEAKENING EASTERN PACIFIC SYSTEMS
 EFFECTIVELY.  
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      20/2100Z 20.4N 134.2W    50 KT
  12HR VT     21/0600Z 21.1N 135.4W    35 KT
  24HR VT     21/1800Z 21.9N 136.7W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
  36HR VT     22/0600Z 22.5N 138.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  48HR VT     22/1800Z 23.0N 139.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  72HR VT     23/1800Z 23.5N 143.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  96HR VT     24/1800Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN