288 
 WTPZ42 KNHC 210849
 TCDEP2
 HURRICANE FAUSTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  21
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP072008
 200 AM PDT MON JUL 21 2008
 
 ALTHOUGH IT APPEARED THAT FAUSTO HAD REACHED A PEAK INTENSITY
 YESTERDAY...THE EYE BECAME MORE DEFINED AGAIN ON INFRARED IMAGES
 AND A BLEND OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB SUPPORT
 A CURRENT WIND SPEED OF 85 KT. IN SPITE OF THE MARGINAL...24C OCEAN
 TEMPERATURES...FAUSTO HAS APPARENTLY TAKEN ADVANTAGE OF THE LOW-
 SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. IT SEEMS UNLIKELY THAT THE HURRICANE CAN
 STRENGTHEN ANY MORE GIVEN THE MORE DOMINATING INFLUENCE OF COOLER
 WATERS... AND THIS REASONING IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
 FORECAST WHICH SHOWS WEAKENING. FAUSTO WILL LIKELY BE DISSIPATING
 IN AROUND 3 DAYS.
 
 INITIAL MOTION IS NORTHWESTWARD...305/11.  DYNAMICAL TRACK GUIDANCE
 IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON A SLIGHT BEND TO A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
 HEADING AS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE MOVES ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF AN
 ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES.  THIS IS
 ALSO THE TRACK SHOWN BY THE LATEST OFFICIAL FORECAST...WHICH IS
 VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      21/0900Z 20.1N 115.4W    85 KT
  12HR VT     21/1800Z 20.8N 117.0W    75 KT
  24HR VT     22/0600Z 21.6N 119.1W    65 KT
  36HR VT     22/1800Z 22.3N 121.0W    50 KT
  48HR VT     23/0600Z 22.8N 122.6W    35 KT
  72HR VT     24/0600Z 24.0N 126.0W    25 KT
  96HR VT     25/0600Z 25.0N 128.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 120HR VT     26/0600Z 26.5N 131.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  
 $$
 FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH