481 
 WTPZ42 KNHC 020246
 TCDEP2
 TROPICAL STORM BORIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  21
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP022008
 800 PM PDT TUE JUL 01 2008
  
 THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN OF BORIS HAS CHANGED VERY LITTLE THIS
 EVENING.  HOWEVER...AN AMSR-E MICROWAVE OVERPASS SUGGESTS THAT THE
 EYE FEATURE SEEN EARLIER TODAY IN MICROWAVE IMAGERY HAS CONTINUED
 TO ERODE.  THE CURRENT INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 60 KT...WHICH IS
 SUPPORTED BY THE AVERAGE OF DVORAK T AND CI NUMBERS FROM BOTH 
 SAB AND TAFB. 
 
 BORIS HAS JOGGED NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...
 BUT A LONGER TERM AVERAGE YIELDS AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF
 WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295/7 KT.  BORIS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ON A GENERAL
 WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS TOWARD A
 WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO
 REBUILD WESTWARD AFTER 36 HOURS WHICH SHOULD ALLOW BORIS TO TURN
 BACK TOWARD THE WEST.  LATER...NORTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD
 STEER BORIS SOUTHWESTWARD AS THE CYCLONE WEAKENS AND BECOMES A
 SHALLOWER SYSTEM.  THE NEW NHC FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE SLOWER
 AND NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...AND IS CLOSE TO THE GFS...
 UKMET...AND FSSE SUPERENSEMBLE.  THE 18Z NOGAPS SOLUTION...WHICH
 SHOWS LITTLE MOTION DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...IS DISCOUNTED.
 
 SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK ARE EXPECTED TO
 CONTINUE TO COOL. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE
 PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND CALLS FOR GRADUAL WEAKENING DURING THE NEXT
 2 DAYS...FOLLOWED BY FASTER WEAKENING TO A REMNANT LOW IN 3-4 DAYS.
 THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE ICON INTENSITY CONSENSUS
 CLOSELY.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT IF BORIS MOVES TO THE RIGHT OF
 THE FORECAST TRACK...THE SSTS WOULD DECREASE QUICKER WHICH WOULD
 RESULT IN A WEAKER CYCLONE THAN INDICATED BELOW. 
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      02/0300Z 15.5N 125.9W    60 KT
  12HR VT     02/1200Z 15.9N 126.8W    55 KT
  24HR VT     03/0000Z 16.4N 128.1W    50 KT
  36HR VT     03/1200Z 16.8N 129.2W    45 KT
  48HR VT     04/0000Z 16.9N 130.3W    40 KT
  72HR VT     05/0000Z 16.6N 132.5W    30 KT
  96HR VT     06/0000Z 16.0N 135.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 120HR VT     07/0000Z 15.5N 137.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BROWN