315 
 WTPZ42 KNHC 032016
 TCDEP2
 TROPICAL STORM KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER  20
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP122006
 200 PM PDT SUN SEP 03 2006
  
 AN AREA OF STRONG CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED SINCE 1200Z WEST OF THE
 LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH A SUBSTANTIAL AREA OF CLOUD TOP
 TEMPERATURES BELOW -70 C. THE CURRENT MOTION OF 180/2 SIGNALS AN
 EARLIER-THAN-FORECAST TURN TO THE WEST AND SINCE THE CONVECTION IS
 MOVING OVER THE SURFACE CIRCULATION...WE EXPECT KRISTY TO MAINTAIN
 TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY IN THE NEAR TERM AND THEN WEAKEN AS IT
 MOVES OVER COOLER WATER IN THE 36-48 HOUR TIME FRAME. THIS INTENSITY
 FORECAST IS BASED ON MODERATE SHEAR IN THE SHIPS GUIDANCE AND THE
 GFDL MODEL.
  
 THE WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTH OF KRISTY IS FORECAST TO BUILD IN
 THE NEXT THREE DAYS...INTENSIFYING THE TRADE EASTERLIES...AND
 DRIVING THE STORM TOWARD THE WEST. THE GFS GFDL UKMET ECMWF AND
 NOGAPS MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT EXCEPT FOR SPEED WITH THE UKMET
 AND ECMWF SLOW AND GFDL AND GFS FAST. OUR TRACK MORE CLOSELY FOLLOWS
 CONSENSUS BUT IS SHADED TOWARDS THE UKMET/ECMWF.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      03/2100Z 17.7N 118.1W    35 KT
  12HR VT     04/0600Z 17.5N 118.1W    35 KT
  24HR VT     04/1800Z 17.3N 118.2W    35 KT
  36HR VT     05/0600Z 17.5N 119.5W    30 KT
  48HR VT     05/1800Z 18.0N 121.6W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
  72HR VT     06/1800Z 18.9N 126.3W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  96HR VT     07/1800Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER FIORINO/FRANKLIN