979 
 WTPZ42 KNHC 230846
 TCDEP2
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION IVO DISCUSSION NUMBER  20
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP122007
 200 AM PDT SUN SEP 23 2007
  
 NEARLY ALL OF THE DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IVO HAS DISSIPATED
 DURING THE LAST 6-12 HOURS AND THE CYCLONE IS NOW ESSENTIALLY A
 SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS WITH A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.  A QUIKSCAT
 PASS AT 0156 UTC INDICATED THAT MAXIMUM WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO 30
 KT AND THIS WILL BE THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE.  IVO SHOULD
 CONTINUE TO SPIN DOWN AND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN
 12-24 HOURS AND DISSIPATE IN ABOUT 2 DAYS...IF NOT SOONER.
  
 THE NOW SHALLOW CYCLONE IS TURNING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST WITH
 THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 065/6.
 DYNAMICAL MODELS STILL SHOW IVO MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TO
 NORTHEASTWARD BUT ALL OF THESE MODELS APPEAR TO INITIALIZE A VORTEX
 THAT IS FAR TOO DEEP.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SOUTH OF ALL THE
 AVAILABLE GUIDANCE AND IS ESSENTIALLY IN BETWEEN THE OLD FORECAST
 TRACK AND EXTRAPOLATION.  WHILE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST STILL SHOWS
 IVO MOVING OVER THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA PENINSULA LATER
 TODAY...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION COULD PASS
 JUST SOUTH OF THE PENINSULA.
  
 THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE BAJA PENINSULA HAS BEEN CANCELED.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      23/0900Z 22.3N 111.3W    30 KT
  12HR VT     23/1800Z 22.7N 110.6W    25 KT
  24HR VT     24/0600Z 23.3N 109.7W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  36HR VT     24/1800Z 23.9N 109.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  48HR VT     25/0600Z 24.6N 108.6W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  72HR VT     26/0600Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
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