512 
 WTPZ43 KNHC 140841
 TCDEP3
 
 HURRICANE CRISTINA DISCUSSION NUMBER  20
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032014
 200 AM PDT SAT JUN 14 2014
 
 Cristina has been on a weakening trend during the last several
 hours with warming cloud tops noted and less organization seen on
 infrared satellite images.  In addition, microwave data suggest that
 the mid-level center is displaced to the northeast of the low-level
 circulation.  A blend of the T/CI numbers from TAFB/SAB gives an
 initial wind speed of 70 kt.  The hurricane is expected to encounter
 cooler waters and increasing wind shear over the next few days.  In
 combination with plentiful dry air aloft, these factors should
 contribute to continued weakening.  Cristina will likely transition
 into a remnant low in about two days when SSTs drop below 25C.
 Guidance is lower than the last cycle, and the NHC wind speed
 prediction is reduced from the previous one, a bit lower than the
 intensity consensus aids.
 
 The initial motion estimate remains 310/6.  The cyclone should be
 steered by a subtropical ridge over northwestern Mexico for the next
 day or two, resulting in a slower track to the west-northwest.
 After that time, the model guidance is now showing less of a
 westward motion when the cyclone is a remnant low, perhaps due to a
 weaker low-level ridge over the eastern Pacific.  No significant
 changes were made to the first 48 hours of the NHC forecast, but
 afterwards the new forecast is shifted to the north, closer to the
 latest guidance.
 
 The 2014 eastern Pacific hurricane season is off to a record fast
 start.  Up through today's date, it has the highest Accumulated
 Cyclone Energy (ACE) value of any year since 1971-- over 6 times
 the 1981-2010 average.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  14/0900Z 19.3N 111.2W   70 KT  80 MPH
  12H  14/1800Z 19.7N 111.9W   60 KT  70 MPH
  24H  15/0600Z 20.1N 112.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
  36H  15/1800Z 20.5N 113.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
  48H  16/0600Z 20.8N 114.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  72H  17/0600Z 21.5N 116.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  96H  18/0600Z 22.0N 118.0W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 120H  19/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
 $$
 Forecaster Blake