293 
 WTPA41 PHFO 120843
 TCDCP1
 
 HURRICANE PALI DISCUSSION NUMBER  20
 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP012016
 1100 PM HST MON JAN 11 2016
  
 THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF HURRICANE PALI HAS CHANGED LITTLE
 DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...WHILE ITS EXPECTED TURN TOWARD THE
 SOUTH HAS BEGUN. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM HFO...SAB...AND
 JTWC ALL CAME IN AT 4.5/77 KT...AND GIVEN ITS STEADY APPEARANCE...
 THE INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 75 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE WIND
 RADII WERE ALTERED SLIGHTLY BASED ON AN ASCAT PASS EARLIER IN THE
 DAY.
 
 WITH PALI IN THE ACT OF TURNING SOUTHWARD...THE INITIAL MOTION IS
 SET AT SOUTH-SOUTHEAST...OR 160 DEGREES...AT 6 KT. THE HURRICANE
 REMAINS NEAR A LOW LEVEL TROUGH BETWEEN A PERSISTENT AREA OF
 WESTERLY WINDS NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE EQUATOR AND A DEEP RIDGE
 CENTERED ROUGHLY ALONG 20N. THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH IS
 STRENGTHENING...WHICH IS DRIVING THE SOUTHWARD TURN OF PALI. AS PALI
 SLOWLY APPROACHES THE EQUATOR...DEEP EASTERLIES TO THE NORTH ARE
 EXPECTED TO INDUCE A WESTWARD MOTION...THOUGH CONTINUED INTERACTION
 WITH THE LOW LATITUDE TROUGH MAY SLOW THE MOTION SOMEWHAT. THE
 OFFICIAL TRACK WAS ALTERED LITTLE FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND
 REMAINS NEAR BUT SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE GFEX AND TVCN ON THE
 SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE RELIABLE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. IT IS FAIR TO SAY
 THE UNCERTAINTY IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL AS PALI MOVES CLOSER TO THE
 EQUATOR.
 
 THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS CHALLENGING AS THE CYCLONE IS
 EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO EXTREMELY LOW LATITUDES NOT TYPICALLY
 OBSERVED. SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF 10 TO 15 KT ACCORDING
 TO CIMSS AND SHIPS IS NOT HAVING MUCH EFFECT ON PALI AT THIS
 TIME...AS OUTFLOW PERSISTS ON ALL QUADRANTS. ALTHOUGH PALI WILL
 REMAIN OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 28 TO 29 C ALONG THE
 FORECAST TRACK...SHIPS INDICATES A MODEST INCREASE IN WIND SHEAR
 THAT COULD PRODUCE SOME WEAKENING DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
 THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE SHIPS GUIDANCE AS WELL AS
 THE TREND OF THE ICON. THE GFDL MAINTAINS A STRONGER SYSTEM AND IS
 THE OUTLIER THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST. THE GFS ALSO SHOWS
 RE-INTENSIFICATION BEYOND 72 HOURS...BUT THAT SCENARIO IS
 QUESTIONABLE DUE TO THE RARELY SEEN LOW LATITUDES ON THE FORECAST
 TRACK.
  
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  12/0900Z  7.5N 171.6W   75 KT  85 MPH
  12H  12/1800Z  6.7N 171.6W   75 KT  85 MPH
  24H  13/0600Z  5.5N 172.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
  36H  13/1800Z  4.5N 172.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
  48H  14/0600Z  3.8N 173.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
  72H  15/0600Z  2.8N 174.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
  96H  16/0600Z  2.7N 177.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 120H  17/0600Z  2.6N 179.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
  
 $$
 FORECASTER WROE