162
WTPA42 PHFO 231506
TCDCP2
TROPICAL STORM NEKI DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP032009
500 AM HST FRI OCT 23 2009
NEKI HAS WEAKENED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. OVER THE
PAST 6 HOURS IN PARTICULAR...NEKI HAS STRUGGLED TO MAINTAIN DEEP
CONVECTION AND AT 430 AM HST ITS ARGUABLE IF THERE IS ANY AT ALL.
AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES CAME IN AT 3.5 3.5 AND 2.5 FROM PHFO SAB AND
PGTW RESPECTIVELY...THE LATTER BREAKING CONSTRAINTS. COMBINED WITH
THE POOR SATELLITE PRESENTATION...SEE NO REASON TO MAINTAIN
HURRICANE STRENGTH AND HAVE DOWNGRADED NEKI TO A TROPICAL STORM. THE
RAPID WEAKENING ALSO PRESENTS A CHALLENGE ON THE CENTER POSITION.
BELIEVE WHAT LITTLE CONVECTION EXISTS IS BEING SHEARED CONSIDERABLY
TO THE NORTH AND EAST...SO RELIED ON LIMITED MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND
SIMPLE EXTRAPOLATION FOR THE 1200 UTC POSITION.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND BETTER REFLECT THE SLOW DOWN OF
NEKI OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. AS A RESULT...THE ENTIRE FORECAST TRACK
WAS PULLED BACK EVEN FURTHER FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. THROUGH 48
HOURS...EXPECT LESS THAN 10 KT OF FORWARD MOTION WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
ENVIRONMENTAL PUSH. AFTER 48 HOURS...A WEAKENED NEKI WILL PICK UP
SOME SPEED AS IT STARTS TO BE ABSORBED INTO A MUCH LARGER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING ACROSS THE NORTH PACIFIC. THE LATEST
FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY RIGHT OF CENTER DOWN THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE...AND CLOSE TO THE GFDL AND HWRF.
SHIPS CONTINUES TO INDICATE INCREASING SHEAR AND COOLER SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES IN THE COMING DAYS. THE CURRENT SHEAR IS REALLY BEATING
NEKI DOWN. HAVE LOWERED THE FORECAST INTENSITY ACROSS THE
BOARD...MAKING NEKI A REMNANT LOW AT 72 HOURS.
ON ITS CURRENT TRACK...NEKI WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE
PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA NATIONAL MONUMENT BETWEEN MARO REEF AND NIHOA
TODAY. THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE MONUMENT FROM NIHOA ISLAND TO
MARO REEF IS CANCELLED AND REPLACED BY A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
THE SAME AREA. LARGE SWELLS FROM THE SOUTH WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT
PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. SEAS UP TO 20 FT AND
SURF UP TO 25 FEET WILL CONTINUE TO BATTER ISLANDS IN THE WARNING
AREA...ESPECIALLY AROUND FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS. SEAS AND SURF WILL
BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TONIGHT AS NEKI WEAKENS FURTHER.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 23/1500Z 22.8N 165.6W 60 KT
12HR VT 24/0000Z 23.7N 165.4W 55 KT
24HR VT 24/1200Z 24.9N 164.9W 45 KT
36HR VT 25/0000Z 26.2N 164.0W 40 KT
48HR VT 25/1200Z 27.4N 162.9W 30 KT
72HR VT 26/1200Z 30.5N 160.3W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 27/1200Z 36.6N 156.9W 20 KT...DISSIPATING
$$
FORECASTER TANABE
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