486 
 WTPA41 PHFO 251502
 TCDCP1
 
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION KILO DISCUSSION NUMBER  20
 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP032015
 500 AM HST TUE AUG 25 2015
  
 KILO HAS BEEN VERY POORLY ORGANIZED ACCORDING TO INFRARED SATELLITE 
 IMAGERY MOST OF TONIGHT. THE COMPLETELY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL 
 CIRCULATION CENTER /LLCC/ WAS EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY UNTIL 
 JUST A COUPLE OF HOURS AGO. HOWEVER...THERE APPEARS TO BE NEW 
 CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND FROM THE SOUTH TO NEAR THE APPARENT LLCC 
 AS THIS ADVISORY PACKAGE IS BEING SENT. EVEN THOUGH THESE 
 THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE CLOSE TO THE LLCC NOW...THERE IS NO SIGN OF 
 IMPROVING OUTFLOW...SO IT IS HIGHLY UNLIKELY THAT KILO IS UNDERGOING 
 RAPID CHANGES AT THE MOMENT. THE UW-CIMSS AND SHIPS ESTIMATES FOR 
 ENVIRONMENTAL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ARE ABOUT 015 DEGREES AT 10-12 KT. 
 THE LATEST SUBJECTIVE DVORAK SATELLITE ANALYSIS CURRENT INTENSITY 
 ESTIMATES WERE 1.5/25 KT FROM SAB...JTWC AND PHFO. THE LATEST 
 UW-CIMSS ADT ESTIMATE WAS AN UNREALISTIC 2.8/41 KT. BASED ON THE 
 CURRENT DVORAK FIXES...WE WILL MAINTAIN KILO AS A 25 KT TROPICAL 
 DEPRESSION FOR THIS ADVISORY.
  
 THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360 DEGREES/03 KT. THIS SLOW FORWARD 
 MOTION IS DUE TO KILO MOVING INTO A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT TO THE 
 WEST OF A WEAKENING MID-LEVEL RIDGE. THIS WEAK STEERING WILL LIKELY 
 BE THE CASE FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AFTER 24 HOURS...MOST OF 
 THE GLOBAL FORECAST MODELS INDICATE A NEW MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD 
 NORTH OF KILO. AS THIS HAPPENS...THE SYSTEM SHOULD START TRACKING 
 TOWARD THE WEST...OR POSSIBLY THE WEST-SOUTHWEST...AT A GRADUALLY 
 INCREASING FORWARD SPEED DURING DAYS 2 THROUGH 5. AS A RESULT OF 
 THIS RECONFIGURATION OF THE FUTURE SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT IN THE 
 VICINITY OF KILO...THE LATEST TRACK GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A 
 SHARP TURN AND AN ACCELERATION TOWARD THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST 
 STARTING IN 36 HOURS. SINCE THIS HAS BEEN THE SECOND ROUND OF 
 GUIDANCE THAT SHOWS THIS MOTION...THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN 
 NUDGED TOWARD THE LEFT CLOSER TO THE NORTHERNMOST TRACKS...WHICH ARE 
 STILL THE GFDL AND HWRF. THE GLOBAL MODELS...AS WELL AS THE 
 CONSENSUS MODELS...CONTINUE TO BE WELL SOUTH OF OUR LATEST FORECAST 
 TRACK BEYOND 36 HOURS.
  
 THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS CHALLENGING. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE 
 LATEST TRENDS IN THE SATELLITE DATA MIGHT FINALLY VERIFY THE OUTPUT 
 FROM THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS 
 THE PREVIOUS. WE CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME SLOW INTENSIFICATION STARTING 
 LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK IS OVER SEA 
 SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF AROUND 29C. THE MOST RECENT ANALYSIS FROM 
 CIRA ALSO SHOWS AMPLE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT ALONG THE TRACK. THE SHIPS 
 OUTPUT CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL RELAX 
 WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. THE CURRENT FORECAST INDICATES KILO 
 WILL BECOME A TROPICAL STORM AGAIN IN 36 HOURS WITH SOME SLOW 
 INTENSIFICATION THROUGH DAY 5. THE LATEST INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS 
 CLOSELY THE SHIPS AND ICON GUIDANCE. 
 
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  25/1500Z 18.5N 167.3W   25 KT  30 MPH
  12H  26/0000Z 18.7N 167.4W   25 KT  30 MPH
  24H  26/1200Z 18.8N 167.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
  36H  27/0000Z 18.8N 167.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
  48H  27/1200Z 18.7N 168.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
  72H  28/1200Z 18.5N 169.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
  96H  29/1200Z 18.4N 171.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 120H  30/1200Z 18.3N 174.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
  
 $$
 FORECASTER HOUSTON