046 
 WTNT43 KNHC 221455
 TCDAT3
 HURRICANE RITA DISCUSSION NUMBER  20
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 11 AM EDT THU SEP 22 2005
  
 RITA APPEARS TO HAVE REACHED ITS PEAK INTENSITY DURING THE PAST
 12 HOURS. HURRICANES TYPICALLY DO NOT MAINTAIN SUCH HIGH INTENSITY
 FOR A LONG TIME. INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS 145 KNOTS. ALTHOUGH
 SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
 TWO...DUE TO EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES...AN OVERALL GRADUAL
 WEAKENING TREND SHOULD TAKE PLACE. THIS WEAKENING TREND IS BASED ON
 LOWER OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK AND INCREASING
 SHEAR. NEVERTHERELESS...RITA IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AS A
 DANGEROUS HURRICANE OF AT LEAST A CATEGORY THREE INTENSITY.  
 
 RITA HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 8
 KNOTS. A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER
 NORTHERN TEXAS/OKLAHOMA IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EASTWARD ALLOWING RITA
 TO TAKE A MORE NORTHWESTERLY AND NORTHERLY TRACK. THE EASTWARD
 SHIFT OF THE HIGH IS FORECAST BY ALL GLOBAL MODELS...RESULTING IN
 TRACK GUIDANCE CONSISTENTLY TURNING THE HURRICANE TOWARD THE
 NORTHWEST AND NORTH TOWARD THE UPPER-TEXAS OR THE WESTERN LOUISIANA
 COASTS. AFTER LANDFALL...STEERING CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
 AND THE CYCLONE COULD MEANDER FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS IN THE VICINITY
 OF NORTHEASTERN TEXAS...PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS. 
 
 BASED ON THE FORECAST TRACK AND WIND RADII...HURRICANE WARNINGS HAVE
 BEEN ISSUED AT THIS TIME FROM PORT O'CONNOR TEXAS TO MORGAN CITY
 LOUISIANA. TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT ON EITHER SIDE OF
 THE HURRICANE WARNING.  
  
 FORECASTER AVILA
   
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      22/1500Z 25.4N  88.7W   145 KT
  12HR VT     23/0000Z 25.8N  89.9W   140 KT
  24HR VT     23/1200Z 26.9N  91.6W   130 KT
  36HR VT     24/0000Z 28.2N  93.0W   125 KT
  48HR VT     24/1200Z 30.0N  94.5W   100 KT...INLAND
  72HR VT     25/1200Z 33.0N  95.0W    45 KT...INLAND
  96HR VT     26/1200Z 34.0N  95.0W    30 KT...INLAND
 120HR VT     27/1200Z 34.5N  94.5W    25 KT...INLAND
  
  
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