216 
 WTNT43 KNHC 140258
 TCDAT3
 HURRICANE CHARLEY DISCUSSION NUMBER  20
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 11 PM EDT FRI AUG 13 2004
  
 CHARLEY HAS WEAKENED SIGNIFICANTLY DURING ITS PASSAGE OVER THE
 FLORIDA PENINSULA.  THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS RISEN TO AT LEAST 975
 MB...WHILE SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS SHOWN A MARKED DECREASE IN THE
 COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THE CONVECTION.  HOWEVER...SURFACE
 OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT CHARLEY RETAINS THE TIGHT WIND CORE IT HAD
 AT LANDFALL...ALTHOUGH THE SMALL EYE SEEN ON RADAR AT LANDFALL IS
 GONE.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 75 KT BASED ON A COMBINATION
 OF SURFACE AND WSR-88D DOPPLER WIND DATA.
 
 THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 020/22.  THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE TRACK
 FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.  CHARLEY IS NOW EMBEDDED IN DEEP LAYER
 SOUTHWESTERLIES ON THE EAST SIDE OF A UNSEASONABLY STRONG TROUGH. 
 THE CYCLONE SHOULD MOVE GENERALLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH 48 HR
 FOLLOWED BY A MORE NORTHEASTWARD MOTION AT HIGH LATITUDES.  THIS
 TRACK SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF CHARLEY ACROSS OPEN WATER FOR
 12-18 HR OR SO BEFORE IT REACHES THE COAST OF SOUTH OR NORTH
 CAROLINA....THEN MOVE IT ALONG THE U.S. EASTERN SEABOARD. THE TRACK
 FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND IS
 ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE.
 
 THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE PROBLEMATIC.  THERE ARE A LOT OF
 NEGATIVE FACTORS...INCLUDING COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES THAN
 CHARLEY EXPERIENCED IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...INCREASING VERTICAL
 WIND SHEAR...AND INCREASING PROXIMITY TO A FRONTAL ZONE.  THE
 BIGGEST POSITIVE FACTOR IS THE CONTINUED EXISTENCE OF THE INNER
 CORE.  BASED ON THE CORE...AND THE GFDL GUIDANCE CALLING FOR SOME
 INTENSIFICATION...THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL CALL FOR SOME SLOW
 STRENGTHENING BEFORE THE NEXT LANDFALL.  AFTER LANDFALL...CHARLEY
 SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT MERGES WITH THE FRONTAL ZONE AND BECOMES
 EXTRATROPICAL.
  
 FORECASTER BEVEN
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      14/0300Z 29.1N  81.1W    75 KT...INLAND
  12HR VT     14/1200Z 32.0N  80.0W    80 KT...OVER WATER
  24HR VT     15/0000Z 36.3N  77.6W    60 KT...INLAND
  36HR VT     15/1200Z 41.1N  74.1W    45 KT...INLAND EXTRATROPICAL
  48HR VT     16/0000Z 44.6N  70.7W    30 KT...INLAND EXTRATROPICAL
  72HR VT     17/0000Z 48.5N  63.5W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
  96HR VT     18/0000Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM
  
  
 $$