681 
 WTPZ44 KNHC 070234
 TCDEP4
 
 HURRICANE NORBERT DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142014
 800 PM PDT SAT SEP 06 2014
 
 The cloud pattern of Norbert has degraded significantly over the
 past few hours. The eye is no longer apparent, and in fact there is
 no deep convection north of the center where SSTs are below 26C.
 Satellite intensity estimates continue to decrease, and the initial
 intensity of 75 kt is based on the latest UW-CIMSS ADT estimate and
 the Dvorak estimate from SAB. Rapid weakening is expected to
 continue during the next 24 hours, as the cyclone will move over
 colder waters and into a drier and more stable environment. Norbert
 should then weaken more slowly to remnant low status in 2 to 3 days
 over the cold waters west of the northern Baja California peninsula.
 The new NHC intensity forecast is close the latest IVCN multi-model
 consensus.
 
 Norbert has jogged a bit to the left over the past few hours, with
 an initial motion estimate of 300/07. The synoptic reasoning for the
 track forecast remains unchanged. Norbert will be steered around the
 southwestern periphery of a mid-level ridge centered over the
 southwestern United States, which should result in a turn toward the
 north-northwest by 24 hours. By 48 hours, Norbert should turn
 northward as it moves into a break in the ridge at the base of a
 mid-latitude trough off the U.S. West Coast. A slow northeastward
 motion is shown late in the period as the shallow cyclone will be
 embedded in weak low-level flow. The new NHC track is similar to the
 previous one adjusted for the initial position and motion.
 
 The 34-kt wind radii have been adjusted inward based on data from a
 recent ASCAT-B pass.
 
 Moisture from the remnants of Dolly and the Pacific ITCZ is being
 advected northward by the outer circulation of Norbert across
 northern Mexico and into the southwestern United States. This could
 result in heavy rains and life-threatening flash flooding in these
 areas during the next few days. Please see information from your
 local weather office for more details.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  07/0300Z 25.5N 115.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
  12H  07/1200Z 25.9N 116.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
  24H  08/0000Z 26.9N 117.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
  36H  08/1200Z 27.9N 117.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
  48H  09/0000Z 28.8N 117.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
  72H  10/0000Z 29.7N 116.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  96H  11/0000Z 30.0N 116.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 120H  12/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
 $$
 Forecaster Brennan