016 
 WTPZ42 KNHC 031451
 TCDEP2
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP122006
 800 AM PDT SUN SEP 03 2006
  
 KRISTY CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN SHALLOW TO MODERATE DEPTH CONVECTION IN
 ITS WESTERN SEMICIRCLE.  THE PERSISTENCE OF CONVECTION...ALBEIT
 WEAK...AND GIVEN THE WELL-DEFINED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION...WE WILL
 MAINTAIN THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 30 KT. THE LATEST SHIPS INTENSITY
 GUIDANCE SHOWS INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
 AND...WITH CONTINUED INTRUSION OF DRY STABLE AIR...THE TROPICAL
 DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN INTO A REMNANT LOW IN 24-36 HOURS. 
 HOWEVER BOTH THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS SUGGEST KRISTY COULD SURVIVE
 LONGER THAN INDICATED HERE.
  
 KRISTY IS MOVING AT 130/2. OUR TRACK FORECAST MAINTAINS THIS MOTION
 AND THEN TURNS KRISTY SOUTH AS THE LOW-LEVEL TROUGH TRAILING
 SOUTHWESTWARD FROM TROPICAL STORM JOHN WEAKENS.  THE REMNANTS OF
 KRISTY...IF NOT FULLY DISSIPATED AT 36 HOURS...THEN FOLLOWS THE
 EASTERLY TRADES.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS A CONSENSUS
 OF THE GFDL UKMET AND GFS MODELS WHICH ALL GENERALLY FOLLOW THE
 ABOVE SCENARIO EXCEPT DIFFER IN TIMING OF THE WESTWARD TURN.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      03/1500Z 18.0N 117.9W    30 KT
  12HR VT     04/0000Z 17.7N 117.7W    30 KT...DISSIPATING
  24HR VT     04/1200Z 17.1N 117.8W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
  36HR VT     05/0000Z 17.1N 118.4W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
  48HR VT     05/1200Z 17.6N 119.9W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  72HR VT     06/1200Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER FIORINO/FRANKLIN