451 
 WTPZ43 KNHC 140238
 TCDEP3
 
 HURRICANE CRISTINA DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032014
 800 PM PDT FRI JUN 13 2014
 
 Conventional satellite imagery shows that Cristina's inner core
 convection has become somewhat better organized and colder than
 six hours ago.  The eye is also slightly better defined and
 warmer, though it was cloud-filled in last-light visible images.
 A 0045 UTC SSMIS overpass revealed that a new inner eyewall had
 developed but was partially open to the southwest.  Although Dvorak
 CI- and Final-T numbers were a consensus 4.5/77 kt at 00z, the
 initial intensity is kept at 80 kt, owing to the slight increase in
 organization of the the cloud pattern since the last advisory.
 Despite the recent uptick in organization, gradual weakening is
 indicated by the intensity guidance during the day or two as
 Cristina encounters increasing southwesterly shear and moves over
 cooler waters.  Rapid weakening is likely by 48 hours, when the
 cyclone reaches a hostile environment of sea surface temperatures
 lower than 25C, greater than 20 kt of southwesterly shear, and
 a substantially drier and more stable air mass.  The NHC intensity
 forecast is little changed from the previous one except to show
 remnant low status a day sooner.
 
 The initial motion estimate is 310/06.  Global models show Cristina
 being steered around the southwestern periphery of a subtropical
 ridge over northwestern Mexico in the short term.  This feature is
 forecast to weaken during the next couple of days as a longwave
 trough becomes established over the western United States and
 extreme northern Mexico.  This pattern should cause the forward
 speed of the cyclone to decrease while the the circulation weakens
 and becomes more shallow.  The shallow vortex should turn westward
 by 72 hours and move little as it becomes embedded in region of weak
 low-level steering.  Given the good model agreement, the NHC
 forecast is nearly identical to the previous one and very near the
 multi-model consensus.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  14/0300Z 18.9N 110.7W   80 KT  90 MPH
  12H  14/1200Z 19.3N 111.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
  24H  15/0000Z 19.8N 112.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
  36H  15/1200Z 20.1N 113.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
  48H  16/0000Z 20.4N 113.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
  72H  17/0000Z 21.0N 115.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  96H  18/0000Z 21.2N 117.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 120H  19/0000Z 21.2N 118.0W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
 $$
 Forecaster Kimberlain