634 
 WTPZ42 KNHC 011459
 TCDEP2
 HURRICANE BORIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP022008
 800 AM PDT TUE JUL 01 2008
  
 THE EYE FEATURE HAS BECOME OBSCURED IN SHORTWAVE INFRARED IMAGERY
 DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...DISAPPEARING SHORTLY AFTER 0900 UTC
 WHEN A TRMM OVERPASS REVEALED ABOUT HALF OF AN EYEWALL IN THE
 SOUTHWESTERN SEMICIRCLE.  DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE
 STILL 65 KT AT 1200 UTC...AND EVEN THOUGH CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES
 HAVE WARMED SLIGHTLY SINCE THEN...THE ADVISORY INTENSITY WILL
 REMAIN 65 KT.  BORIS MIGHT HOLD ON TO HURRICANE STATUS A LITTLE
 WHILE LONGER...BUT A WEAKENING TREND SHOULD NOT BE FAR BEHIND. 
 SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK WILL SLOWLY COOL
 DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO...THEN DECREASE FASTER AFTER THE
 CYCLONE CROSSES THE 26C ISOTHERM.  GIVEN LITTLE CHANGE IN VERTICAL
 WIND SHEAR FORECAST BY THE DYNAMICAL MODELS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
 OF DAYS...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR ONLY SLOW
 WEAKENING THROUGH 48 HOURS.  A MORE RAPID DECLINE IS FORECAST AT 3
 TO 5 DAYS DUE TO THE COOLER WATERS AND AN EXPECTED SLIGHT INCREASE
 IN THE WIND SHEAR BY THAT TIME...AND BORIS COULD DEGENERATE INTO A
 REMNANT LOW IN LESS THAN FIVE DAYS.  THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST
 GENERALLY CALLS FOR FASTER WEAKENING THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE.
 
 BORIS APPEARS TO BE SLOWING DOWN.  THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS
 270/10...WITH STEERING PROVIDED BY A NARROW MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE
 NORTH OF THE CYCLONE.  THAT RIDGE IS FORECAST BY MOST OF THE MODELS
 TO ERODE SOMEWHAT IN RESPONSE TO AN EASTWARD-MOVING DEEP-LAYER LOW
 SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES WEST OF CALIFORNIA.  AS A RESULT THE OFFICIAL
 TRACK FORECAST INDICATES A DECELERATION AND A SLIGHT BEND TO THE
 RIGHT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...FOLLOWED BY A MOTION
 SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF WEST AFTER THE WEAKENING CYCLONE PROCEEDS WITHIN
 THE LOWER-LEVEL FLOW.  THIS NEW FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE
 PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND REMAINS GENERALLY ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE
 GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
 
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      01/1500Z 14.6N 125.0W    65 KT
  12HR VT     02/0000Z 14.7N 126.3W    60 KT
  24HR VT     02/1200Z 15.0N 127.7W    55 KT
  36HR VT     03/0000Z 15.3N 129.1W    50 KT
  48HR VT     03/1200Z 15.5N 130.3W    45 KT
  72HR VT     04/1200Z 15.5N 132.5W    30 KT
  96HR VT     05/1200Z 15.2N 134.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 120HR VT     06/1200Z 14.8N 137.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
  
 $$
 FORECASTER KNABB