642 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 270848
 TCDEP1
 
 HURRICANE AMANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012014
 200 AM PDT TUE MAY 27 2014
 
 Amanda apparently still has some gas in the tank.  The hurricane
 appeared to be succumbing to strong vertical shear on Monday, but
 its satellite presentation has improved markedly during the past
 several hours.  An eye has reappeared and is completely surrounded
 by convective tops as cold as -85C.  The shear is still affecting
 the structure, however, with the clouds elongated from south to
 north.  Nonetheless, Dvorak estimates have risen to T6.0/115 kt
 from TAFB, T5.5/102 kt from SAB, and T6.5/127 kt from the objective
 ADT.  The initial intensity is therefore raised to 110 kt based on
 a conservative blend of these data.
 
 The recent reintensification has resulted in a somewhat significant
 change to the official intensity forecast.  Weakening is expected
 to resume soon due to strong south to southwesterly shear, which
 should persist for another 24 hours or so.  After that time,
 however, an upper-level shortwave trough currently to the northwest
 of Amanda is expected to lift northeastward and dampen, which
 could leave the hurricane in a slightly more favorable upper-level
 environment for a few days.  Due to the higher initial intensity and
 the more favorably evolving upper-level pattern, the NHC intensity
 forecast shows more gradual weakening than before, and Amanda may
 not become a remnant low until the very end of the forecast period.
 Despite the adjustment, the updated forecast is near the lower end
 of the intensity guidance and matches best with the FSU
 Superensemble.  The weakening trend could be even slower if the rest
 of the intensity models end up being correct.
 
 Amanda continues to move slowly north-northwestward...or 340/4 kt...
 between a weak mid-level ridge over Mexico and a mid-/upper-level
 trough near 20N128W.  As the trough migrates eastward, Amanda is
 forecast to continue moving slowly northward and then turn
 northeastward by 48 hours.  Once the cyclone weakens, however, weak
 low-level flow off the coast of Mexico will likely cause it to
 stall or meander by days 4 and 5.  Although there is still a
 significant amount of spread in the track guidance, nearly all of
 the models have shifted to the right, with the GFS and ECMWF lying
 on the eastern edge of the guidance envelope.  The NHC track has
 also been nudged eastward and lies to the right of the multi-model
 consensus TVCE.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  27/0900Z 14.2N 112.2W  110 KT 125 MPH
  12H  27/1800Z 14.6N 112.3W   95 KT 110 MPH
  24H  28/0600Z 15.1N 112.1W   80 KT  90 MPH
  36H  28/1800Z 15.8N 111.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
  48H  29/0600Z 16.4N 111.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
  72H  30/0600Z 17.5N 110.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
  96H  31/0600Z 17.5N 109.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 120H  01/0600Z 17.0N 110.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
 $$
 Forecaster Berg