697 
 WTPA42 PHFO 191508
 TCDCP2
  
 Hurricane Lane Discussion Number  19
 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP142018
 500 AM HST Sun Aug 19 2018
 
 Lane has not had a distinct eye in satellite imagery since late
 Saturday afternoon. However, a small warm spot appears to be
 indicative of an eye trying to form. In addition, a 1253z SSMI
 microwave pass shows a small eye completely surrounded by deep
 convection, which suggests that Lane remains rather well organized
 early this morning. This is despite southwesterly vertical wind
 shear of near 20 knots according to the latest UW-CIMSS output,
 while it is close to 10 knots based on the most recent SHIPS
 guidance. The latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimates are
 T5.0/90 knots from SAB, T6.0/115 knots from JTWC and T6.5/127 
 knots from PHFO. The most recent ADT from UW-CIMSS is now
 T5.4/100 knots. Based on a blend of this guidance, the latest 
 initial intensity has been adjusted downward slightly to 105 knots
 for this advisory. 
  
 Lane's initial motion for this advisory is 280/13 kt. The latest
 forecast track has been adjusted slightly to the right of the
 previous track during the 12-36 hour and 96-120 hour time periods. A
 large subtropical ridge to the north of Lane will continue to keep
 the system moving along the same general track during the next 12
 hours, but at a slightly slower forward speed during the 24-72 hour
 time periods. A shift toward the west-northwest will likely begin
 beyond 72 hours as Lane approaches the western end of the ridge. The
 forecast models are showing this western end of the ridge will
 erode due to an upper-level trough digging down northwest of the
 Hawaiian Islands. Due to increasing uncertainty about the strength
 of the ridge, the model spread has increased dramatically tonight.
 The changes in the current forecast track were based on nudging
 toward the latest HWRF and HCCA guidance, as well as the GFEX and
 TVCN consensus models. A NOAA G-IV aircraft plans to do a synoptic
 sampling in the environment around the Hawaiian Islands and Lane
 later today. The valuable data collected during this mission will be
 available to better initialize the forecast models. 
  
 The latest intensity forecast has been nudged up slightly,
 especially during days 4 and 5. This forecast closely follows the
 IVCN, which shows gradual weakening from 48 through 120 hours. The
 ocean water temperatures will remain in the 27-28 degrees C
 range along the forecast track, but there may still be 10 to 15
 knots of vertical wind shear through most of the forecast period.
 Note that the latest CIRA analysis of Ocean Heat Content shows a
 local maximum along the track between 72 and 96 hours. If this
 verifies, this may allow Lane to remain stronger than anticipated
 beyond day 3.
  
 Lane is forecast to pass south of the main Hawaiian Islands
 Wednesday and Thursday, potentially causing local impacts as it
 tracks west-northwestward. Interests in these islands should watch
 the progress of Lane closely, since long-range track and intensity
 forecast errors can be large.
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  19/1500Z 13.2N 143.5W  105 KT 120 MPH
  12H  20/0000Z 13.5N 145.1W  100 KT 115 MPH
  24H  20/1200Z 13.8N 147.1W  100 KT 115 MPH
  36H  21/0000Z 14.0N 148.9W  100 KT 115 MPH
  48H  21/1200Z 14.2N 150.8W   95 KT 110 MPH
  72H  22/1200Z 14.8N 154.4W   80 KT  90 MPH
  96H  23/1200Z 16.0N 157.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
 120H  24/1200Z 17.6N 160.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
  
 $$
 Forecaster Houston