545 
 WTPA41 PHFO 120259
 TCDCP1
 
 HURRICANE PALI DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP012016
 500 PM HST MON JAN 11 2016
  
 IT IS RATHER SURREAL TO BE SAYING THIS IN JANUARY...BUT THE
 SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF PALI HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE TODAY WITH
 THE RAGGED EYE BECOMING BETTER DEFINED IN VISIBLE IMAGERY. MICROWAVE
 IMAGERY HAS ALSO SHOWN THE EYEWALL BECOMING BETTER DEFINED.
 SUBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM THE PARTICIPATING AGENCIES WERE
 UNANIMOUS AT 4.5 AND THE UW-CIMSS ADT GAVE 5.1. THUS...NOT ONLY IS
 PALI NOW A HURRICANE...BUT THE EARLIEST RECORDED HURRICANE IN A
 CALENDAR YEAR IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN. THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS
 HELD BY EKEKA IN JANUARY OF 1992. YET ANOTHER RECORD TO STACK ON THE
 EVER-GROWING PILE OF RECENT RECORDS DUE IN LARGE PART TO THE ONGOING
 STRONG EL NINO.
 
 THE ESTIMATED MOTION OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS IS 105/5. A
 LARGE...STRONG MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE LOCATED BETWEEN WAKE ISLAND AND
 THE MARIANA ISLANDS IS IN THE PROCESS OF BUILDING EASTWARD INTO THE
 CENTRAL PACIFIC. THIS IS EXPECTED TO IMPART AN INCREASINGLY
 SOUTHWARD MOTION ON THE HURRICANE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE DEEP
 LAYER FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF THE STRONG RIDGE WILL SLOWLY BEGIN
 TURNING THE HURRICANE BACK TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST BETWEEN 24 AND 72
 HOURS. A MORE TYPICAL WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE
 REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE
 PREVIOUS ONE...AND LEANS TOWARD A BLEND OF THE CONSENSUS MODELS AND
 THE HWRF IN THE FIRST 48 HOURS. THERE IS A FAIRLY LARGE SPREAD
 IN THE GUIDANCE AFTER 72 HOURS OWING TO UNCERTAINTY OF WHEN A MORE
 WESTWARD MOTION WILL BEGIN...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ROUGHLY
 DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT
 THE ECMWF IS EXHIBITING SOME UNUSUAL BEHAVIOR IN THE LATTER PORTION
 OF THE FORECAST...AS IT TAKES THE CYCLONE SIGNIFICANTLY CLOSER TO
 THE EQUATOR THAN MOST OTHER GUIDANCE.
 
 THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS ALSO FAIRLY CHALLENGING. MODERATE WESTERLY
 SHEAR OF AROUND 15 KNOTS DOES NOT SEEM TO BE IMPACTING PALI
 MUCH...PERHAPS BECAUSE OF THE EASTERLY DRIFT IT HAS EXPERIENCED
 TODAY. THE CYCLONE IS OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 28C...AND THE
 WATER WILL INCREASE ALONG THE TRACK AS WELL. SOME OF THE MODELS
 SUGGEST THAT THE SHEAR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS
 BEFORE EASING DURING THE LATTER PORTION OF THE FORECAST. LITTLE
 CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO...
 FOLLOWED BY A SLOW WEAKENING TREND AS THE SYSTEM TURNS BACK TOWARD
 THE SHEAR VECTOR. ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BECOME MORE
 FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING AFTER 72 HOURS...WITH WEAK SHEAR
 AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...THE PROXIMITY OF PALI TO THE
 EQUATOR MAY INHIBIT REINTENSIFICATION. 
  
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  12/0300Z  8.1N 171.9W   75 KT  85 MPH
  12H  12/1200Z  7.5N 171.6W   75 KT  85 MPH
  24H  13/0000Z  6.4N 171.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
  36H  13/1200Z  5.3N 171.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
  48H  14/0000Z  4.5N 172.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
  72H  15/0000Z  3.2N 174.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
  96H  16/0000Z  2.8N 176.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
 120H  17/0000Z  2.7N 178.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
  
 $$
 FORECASTER R BALLARD