466 
 WTPA41 PHFO 111430
 TCDCP1
 
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION KIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP012008
 500 AM HST MON AUG 11 2008
 
 CONVECTION HAS REDEVELOPED NORTHWEST OF THE LLCC SINCE 11 PM.
 HOWEVER...JTWC...PHFO AND SAB HAVE ALL DERIVED A CURRENT INTENSITY
 OF 25 KT. ALSO...THE LATEST MULTIPLATFORM TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND
 ANALYSIS FROM CIRA SHOWS MAXIMUM WINDS OF 25 KT WITHIN THE NORTHERN
 SEMICIRCLE. UW/CIMMS BREAKS THIS PATTERN WITH AN INTENSITY OF 35 KT.
 WHILE IT IS TEMPTING TO ASSIGN A 25 KT INITIAL INTENSITY...WE WILL
 INSTEAD KEEP IT AT 30 KT NOT ONLY AS A NOD TO UW/CIMMS BUT ALSO TO
 THE RAPID INCREASE IN SYSTEM CONVECTION.
  
 TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED...TAKING KIKA ON A STEADY
 WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH 120 HOURS. THE FORECAST TRACK...FIRMLY
 NESTLED AMONG THIS GUIDANCE...CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE PREVIOUS ONE.
  
 INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS NOT AS TIGHT AS THOSE FOR TRACK. GFDL VERY 
 SLOWLY WEAKENS KIKA TO 27 KT AT 96 HOURS...WHILE SHIPS GRADUALLY 
 STRENGTHENS KIKA TO HURRICANE STATUS AT 120 HOURS. THE SUDDEN 
 CONVECTIVE SURGE STIFLES ANY URGE TO DISSIPATE KIKA. YET 
 SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR WITHIN THE KIKA ENVIRONMENT IS FORECAST TO 
 INCREASE STEADILY THROUGH 48 HOURS. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL 
 CHANGE LITTLE ACROSS THE FORECAST TRACK...WITH THE TWO EFFECTS 
 LIKELY RESULTING IN SLIGHT WEAKENING AT LEAST THROUGH 24 HOURS. AS 
 A COMPROMISE...WE WILL WEAKEN KIKA TO 25 KT AT 24 HOURS...THEN KEEP 
 KIKA AT THAT STRENGTH THROUGH 120 HOURS.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      11/1500Z 10.1N 167.5W    30 KT
  12HR VT     12/0000Z 10.3N 169.6W    30 KT
  24HR VT     12/1200Z 10.8N 172.5W    25 KT
  36HR VT     13/0000Z 11.3N 175.6W    25 KT
  48HR VT     13/1200Z 11.7N 178.5W    25 KT
  72HR VT     14/1200Z 12.4N 176.3E    25 KT
  96HR VT     15/1200Z 13.2N 171.3E    25 KT
 120HR VT     16/1200Z 14.8N 166.7E    25 KT
  
 $$
 FORECASTER POWELL