209 
 WTNT43 KNHC 240237
 TCDAT3
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 11 PM EDT THU SEP 23 2004
  
 SHORTWAVE INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICTS A POORLY DEFINED EXPOSED
 LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER DISPLACED ABOUT 80 NM TO THE NORTHEAST
 OF THE REMAINING DEEP CONVECTION. 20 KT OF NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR
 CONTINUES TO IMPACT LISA.  THE SHIPS MODEL SUGGESTS SLIGHT
 WEAKENING OF THE NORTHERLY SHEAR OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
 AFTERWARD...THE INTENSITY MODEL INDICATES THAT LISA WILL ENCOUNTER
 INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID/UPPER
 TROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE GFS INDICATES STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY
 SHEAR BY DAY 4 AND OPENS LISA INTO A WAVE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
 CALLS FOR GRADUAL STRENGTHENING THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST BUT NOT
 QUITE AS GENEROUS AS THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.
  
 INITIAL MOTION IS 290/6 KT. FORECAST TRACK PHILOSOPHY REMAINS
 UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE
 NORTH-NORTHWEST WITHIN A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS
 EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS ADJUSTED
 TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TO CONFORM WITH THE CONU
 CONSENSUS.
  
 FORECASTER ROBERTS/AVILA
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      24/0300Z 14.7N  42.0W    30 KT
  12HR VT     24/1200Z 15.1N  42.8W    30 KT
  24HR VT     25/0000Z 15.9N  44.1W    30 KT
  36HR VT     25/1200Z 16.9N  45.1W    30 KT
  48HR VT     26/0000Z 18.5N  46.0W    35 KT
  72HR VT     27/0000Z 21.0N  47.0W    40 KT
  96HR VT     28/0000Z 24.0N  48.0W    45 KT
 120HR VT     29/0000Z 28.5N  48.5W    50 KT
  
  
 $$