019 
 WTNT42 KNHC 300236
 TCDAT2
 HURRICANE EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072010
 1100 PM AST SUN AUG 29 2010
  
 EARL HAS STRENGTHENED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.  THE AIR FORCE
 HURRICANE HUNTERS RECENTLY FOUND AN SFMR-MEASURED SURFACE WIND
 SPEED OF 83 KT JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL
 WINDS FROM THE AIRCRAFT WERE 93 KT...WHICH ADJUSTS TO 84 KT AT THE
 SURFACE USING THE STANDARD REDUCTION FACTOR.  BASED ON THESE
 OBSERVATIONS...THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET TO 85 KT.  IMAGES FROM
 THE GUADELOUPE AND ST. MARTIN RADARS SHOW A BANDING-TYPE EYE ABOUT
 30 N MI IN DIAMETER WHILE THE RECONNAISSANCE OBSERVATIONS INDICATED
 THAT THE EYE WAS OPEN OVER THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT.  WATER VAPOR
 IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS BEING IMPEDED OVER
 THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT...BUT IS WELL ESTABLISHED OVER THE REMAINDER
 OF THE CIRCULATION.  A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS CURRENTLY
 SITUATED TO THE NORTHWEST OF EARL.  GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
 AGREEMENT THAT THIS TROUGH WILL SHIFT WESTWARD AND WEAKEN.  THIS
 SHOULD CREATE A ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR INTENSIFICATION AND THE
 OFFICIAL FORECAST...LIKE THE PREVIOUS ONE...SHOWS EARL BECOMING A
 MAJOR HURRICANE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  THE NHC WIND SPEED
 FORECAST IS ABOVE THE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS BUT BELOW THE
 LATEST GFDL HURRICANE MODEL GUIDANCE.
  
 INITIAL MOTION...285/13...IS ABOUT THE SAME AS IN THE PREVIOUS
 ADVISORY.  A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IS LIKELY TO TAKE PLACE
 IN 24 TO 36 HOURS AS THE HURRICANE ENCOUNTERS THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
 OF A MID-TROPOSPHERIC ANTICYCLONE.  BY DAYS 3 TO 4...THE HEADING
 AND FORWARD SPEED OF EARL ARE DEPENDENT ON THE DETAILS OF THE
 EVOLUTION OF A 500 MB TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.  THE
 GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THIS TROUGH AMPLIFYING MORE THAN THE OTHER
 DYNAMICAL MODELS AND MOVE EARL SIGNIFICANTLY FASTER TO THE
 NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH A SHARPER EASTWARD TURN THAN THE OTHER
 GUIDANCE.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS NOT QUITE AS FAST AS THE
 GFS AND ECMWF...BUT IS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
  
 THE FORECAST WIND RADII HAVE BEEN EXPANDED A LITTLE BASED ON
 DYNAMICAL...MAINLY GLOBAL MODEL...GUIDANCE.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      30/0300Z 17.9N  61.1W    85 KT
  12HR VT     30/1200Z 18.5N  62.7W    90 KT
  24HR VT     31/0000Z 19.6N  64.6W   100 KT
  36HR VT     31/1200Z 21.1N  66.4W   110 KT
  48HR VT     01/0000Z 22.8N  68.2W   115 KT
  72HR VT     02/0000Z 27.5N  71.5W   115 KT
  96HR VT     03/0000Z 34.0N  72.0W   100 KT
 120HR VT     04/0000Z 40.0N  67.0W    85 KT
  
 $$
 FORECASTER PASCH