865 
 WTNT44 KNHC 172043
 TCDAT4
 HURRICANE DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042007
 500 PM EDT FRI AUG 17 2007
  
 DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE EARLIER TODAY
 INDICATED THAT DEAN REACHED 110 KNOTS.  NEXT PLANE IS EXPECTED TO
 REACH DEAN AROUND 00 UTC TONIGHT. SATELLITE IMAGES CONTINUE TO SHOW
 AN EYE FEATURE...NUMEROUS CYCLONICALLY CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDS
 WHICH ARE STILL AFFECTING A LARGE PORTION OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.
 THE  OUTFLOW IS WELL ESTABLISHED IN ALL QUADRANTS. ALTHOUGH THE
 POSSIBILITY OF SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY DUE TO EYEWALL
 REPLACEMENT CYCLES COULD OCCUR AT ANY TIME...THE SHEAR IS FORECAST
 TO REMAIN LOW AND THE OCEAN TEMPERATURE INCREASES WESTWARD. THIS
 WOULD CALL FOR AN OVERALL UPWARD INTENSITY TREND. THIS IS
 SUPPORTED BY THE SHIPS....GFDL AND HWRF INTENSITY GUIDANCE.
  
 DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 KNOTS. THE
 STEERING PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE CONTROLLED BY THE HIGH PRESSURE
 SYSTEM TO THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE AND THE MID TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW
 OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC AND FLORIDA. THIS LOW IS FORECAST
 TO WEAKEN AND MOVE WESTWARD AND BE REPLACED BY A RIDGE. THIS
 PATTERN WOULD MAINTAIN DEAN OVER THE CARIBBEAN ON A GENERAL
 WESTWARD TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN YUCATAN AND THE WESTERN GULF OF
 MEXICO. THE GFDL SHOWS A MORE NORTHWESTERLY TRACK ACROSS EXTREME
 WESTERN CUBA AND THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. WHILE THIS SOLUTION IS
 OUTSIDE THE OVERALL MODEL GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...IT CAN NOT BE RULE
 OUT COMPLETELY SINCE THIS MODEL HAS AN EXCELLENT FORECAST TRACK
 HISTORY.   THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS
 ONE AND FOLLOWS THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
  
 THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT DEAN IS EXPECTED TO BE A DANGEROUS HURRICANE
 THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND ALL INTERESTS IN THE CARIBBEAN
 SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
 DEAN.
  
   
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      17/2100Z 15.0N  64.5W   110 KT
  12HR VT     18/0600Z 15.5N  67.4W   115 KT
  24HR VT     18/1800Z 16.4N  70.8W   120 KT
  36HR VT     19/0600Z 17.3N  74.0W   125 KT
  48HR VT     19/1800Z 18.0N  77.0W   130 KT
  72HR VT     20/1800Z 20.0N  84.0W   130 KT
  96HR VT     21/1800Z 22.0N  90.0W   100 KT...INLAND
 120HR VT     22/1800Z 24.5N  96.0W   105 KT
  
 $$
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