964 
 WTNT43 KNHC 132110
 TCDAT3
 HURRICANE CHARLEY DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 5 PM EDT FRI AUG 13 2004
  
 THE CENTER OF CHARLEY HAS MOVED INLAND NEAR CHARLOTTE HARBOR
 FLORIDA.  AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE DATA INDICATE THE MAXIMUM
 SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE AT LEAST 125 KT AT LANDFALL AND THE
 CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 941 MB.  THE CLOSED EYEWALL HAD SHRUNK TO A
 FIVE MILE DIAMETER.  A FLIGHT LEVEL WIND SPEED OF 148 KNOTS
 CORRESPONDS TO A SURFACE WIND SPEED ESTIMATE OF ABOUT 130 KT.  IT
 IS EXPECTED THAT THE WINDS WILL WEAKEN RATHER QUICKLY OVER LAND.
 
 AN UNOFFICIAL WIND GUST TO 127 MPH WAS RECENTLY REPORTED NEAR PUNTA
 GORDA FLORIDA ALONG WITH A 943.6 MB SURFACE PRESSURE.
 
 THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 015/19.  THE TRACK FORECAST SCENARIO
 IS UNCHANGED WITH AN ACCELERATION TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IN
 ADVANCE OF A STRONG TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES EXTENDING FROM THE
 GREAT LAKES SOUTHWARD.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO
 THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND FOLLOWS THE CONSENSUS OF THE TIGHTLY
 CLUSTERED GLOBAL MODELS...EXCEPT FOR THE GFS WHICH IS SOMEWHAT TO
 THE EAST OF THE OTHER MODELS.
 
 THE INTENSITY IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR HURRICANE FORCE WHEN THE CENTER
 MOVES OVER THE ATLANTIC.  THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THIS AS
 NONE OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW HURRICANE WINDS OVER THE ATLANTIC
 SEABOARD.
  
 FORECASTER LAWRENCE
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      13/2100Z 26.9N  82.2W   120 KT
  12HR VT     14/0600Z 29.7N  81.1W    75 KT...OVER WATER
  24HR VT     14/1800Z 33.9N  79.0W    60 KT...INLAND
  36HR VT     15/0600Z 38.5N  76.3W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
  48HR VT     15/1800Z 43.5N  72.0W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
  72HR VT     16/1800Z 47.5N  66.5W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
  96HR VT     17/1800Z 49.5N  60.0W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 120HR VT     18/1800Z...INLAND
  
  
 $$