037 
 WTPZ44 KNHC 200235
 TCDEP4
 HURRICANE HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER  18
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP092006
 800 PM PDT SAT AUG 19 2006
  
 HECTOR'S CLOUD PATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO DETERIORATE AND THE EYE IS
 NO LONGER DISCERNIBLE IN CONVECTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. IN
 FACT...THE CLOUD PATTERN IS BECOMING ASYMMETRIC DUE TO
 NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR AS NOTED BY THE UW-CIMSS ANALYSIS. DVORAK
 INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE SLOWLY DECREASED AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY
 IS LOWERED TO 70 KT.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR WEAKENING
 SINCE THE HURRICANE WILL BE MOVING OVER MUCH COOLER WATERS AND INTO
 AN AREA OF INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
 WEAKENS HECTOR TO A REMNANT LOW IN 48 HOURS AND DISSIPATES THE
 SYSTEM IN ABOUT 4 DAYS.
 
 THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 300/11 KT. THE TRACK FORECAST
 REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED.  HECTOR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON A
 WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWESTWARD HEADING FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
 THEREAFTER...THE CYCLONE SHOULD TURN WESTWARD AS IT BECOMES
 A SHALLOW SYSTEM. THE TRACK FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE FLORIDA
 STATE SUPERENSEMBLE...WHICH HAS HAD A GOOD TRACK RECORD WITH THIS
 STORM.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      20/0300Z 19.0N 132.1W    70 KT
  12HR VT     20/1200Z 19.7N 133.3W    60 KT
  24HR VT     21/0000Z 20.5N 134.6W    45 KT
  36HR VT     21/1200Z 21.2N 135.9W    35 KT
  48HR VT     22/0000Z 21.7N 137.2W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
  72HR VT     23/0000Z 22.2N 140.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  96HR VT     24/0000Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BROWN