405 
 WTPZ42 KNHC 100837
 TCDEP2
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  18
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP072010
 200 AM PDT TUE AUG 10 2010
  
 DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER OF ESTELLE DISSIPATED AROUND
 01Z...BUT SOME MODEST CONVECTION WITH CLOUD TOPS TO -62C 
 REDEVELOPED IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT AROUND 05Z AND HAS PERSISTED
 SINCE THEN. THAT CONVECTION...ALONG WITH TIGHT LOW-LEVEL BANDING
 FEATURES/CLOUD LINES NOTED IN VARIOUS MICROWAVE OVERPASSES DURING
 THE PAST 6 HOURS...IS THE JUSTIFICATION FOR KEEPING ESTELLE BARELY
 AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR THIS ADVISORY.
  
 MICROWAVE SATELLITE POSITIONS SINCE 00Z INDICATE ESTELLE HAS MADE A
 SLOW TURN TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST WITH A MOTION ESTIMATE NOW OF
 235/02. AS ESTELLE CONTINUES TO WEAKENS AND BECOME A MORE SHALLOW
 CYCLONE...THE REMNANT LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO
 GRADUALLY TURN SOUTHWARD AND THEN SOUTHEASTWARD OR EASTWARD AS IT
 GETS DRAWN INTO THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH. ALL OF
 THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE ON THIS GENERAL TRACK
 SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH THEY DIFFER ON WHETHER OR NOT ESTELLE REMAINS A
 SEPARATE ENTITY OR GETS ABSORBED BY A WEAK DISTURBANCE OFF THE
 SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO IN A FEW DAYS. THE CANADIAN MODEL IS
 THE ONLY MODEL NOW THAT HAS ESTELLE BEING ABSORBED INTO ANOTHER
 DISTURBANCE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK
 FORECAST AND LIES ALONG THE EAST SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
 
 STRONG EASTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 30 KT SHOULD HASTEN THE
 DEMISE OF ESTELLE LEAVING A NON-CONVECTIVE REMNANT LOW BY 12
 HOURS...IF NOT SOONER...AS FORECAST BY THE SHIPS AND LGEM INTENSITY
 MODELS. HOWEVER...BY 72 HOURS...THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST BY
 ALL OF THE MODELS TO DECREASE TO AROUND 10-15 KT...WHICH LEAVES
 OPEN THE POSSIBILITY OF REGENERATION. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
 FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BUT DOES NOT WEAKEN
 ESTELLE AS MUCH OR AS QUICKLY AS THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      10/0900Z 17.4N 113.4W    30 KT
  12HR VT     10/1800Z 17.3N 113.5W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  24HR VT     11/0600Z 17.0N 113.4W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  36HR VT     11/1800Z 16.6N 113.1W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  48HR VT     12/0600Z 16.2N 112.6W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  72HR VT     13/0600Z 15.8N 111.3W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  96HR VT     14/0600Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER STEWART