501 
 WTPZ42 KNHC 100234
 TCDEP2
 
 Tropical Storm Aletta Discussion Number  18
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP022018
 900 PM MDT Sat Jun 09 2018
 
 Aletta's downfall has been remarkable.  All associated deep
 convection has dissipated due to 25 kt of southerly shear and
 marginally warm sea surface temperatures, leaving a swirl of low-
 to mid-level clouds.  Dvorak estimates are falling as fast as they
 can based on rules, and the advisory intensity is being set at 50
 kt.  The latest SATCON numbers support this estimate.
 
 Aletta has been losing latitude through the day, moving
 west-southwestward since this morning.  Recent satellite images
 seem to suggest that the cyclone is now moving westward, and the
 motion estimate is 270/6 kt.  The dynamical and simpler Trajectory
 and Beta Models (TAB) have been insisting that Aletta will turn
 generally northwestward, but that obviously hasn't happened.  The
 models seem to be assuming that Aletta is still producing
 convection, with the deeper modeled vortex being steered toward the
 northwest.  With no deep convection, the shallow circulation is
 likely to continue generally westward or south of due west, and the
 NHC forecast is along the southern edge of the guidance, roughly
 between the ECMWF model and the skill-baseline Trajectory-CLIPER
 (TCLP) model.
 
 The new NHC intensity forecast now makes Aletta a remnant low in 36
 hours, but if deep convection doesn't redevelop, that transition
 will occur on Sunday.  Fast weakening is expected to continue, and
 the official forecast closely follows the HCCA model and the
 intensity consensus during the first 24-36 hours.  After that, the
 remnant low's winds are based on the GFS and ECMWF forecast wind
 fields.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  10/0300Z 15.9N 114.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
  12H  10/1200Z 15.9N 115.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
  24H  11/0000Z 15.9N 116.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
  36H  11/1200Z 15.8N 117.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  48H  12/0000Z 15.8N 118.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  72H  13/0000Z 15.8N 120.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  96H  14/0000Z 15.5N 121.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 120H  15/0000Z 15.0N 121.5W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
 $$
 Forecaster Berg