742 
 WTPA42 PHFO 190910
 TCDCP2
  
 Hurricane Lane Discussion Number  18
 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP142018
 1100 PM HST Sat Aug 18 2018
  
 Lane completely lost its eye in the last visible satellite imagery,
 which was available earlier this evening. In addition, microwave
 passes from SSMIS at 0339z and AMSU at 0644z indicated the eyewall
 appeared to be open on the southwestern side of the system. Vertical
 wind shear estimates are 18 knots from the west-southwest according
 to the latest SHIPS and UW-CIMSS. This is likely a major culprit in
 the weakening of Lane. The latest subjective Dvorak intensity
 estimates are T5.5/102 knots from SAB, T6.0/115 knots from JTWC and
 T6.5/127 knots from PHFO. The most recent ADT from UW-CIMSS is
 weaker at 5.7/107 knots. Based on a blend of this guidance, the
 latest initial intensity has been adjusted downward slightly to 110
 kt for this advisory. Note that a warm spot appears to be developing
 in the infrared satellite imagery during the past couple of hours.
  
 Lane's initial motion for this advisory is 280/14 kt. A large
 subtropical ridge to the north will continue to keep Lane moving
 along this same general track, but at a slightly slower forward
 speed during the next two days. A shift back toward the
 west-northwest should occur from 96 through 120 hours as Lane
 approaches the western portion of the ridge. Track guidance shows
 some spread beyond 72 hours. The most recent forecast is very
 similar to the previous through 72 hours, with a shift to the right
 on days 4 and 5. These changes in track were based on nudging toward
 HWRF and HSSE, as well as the GFEX and TVCN consensus.
  
 The intensity forecast closely follows ICON consensus guidance,
 depicting a gradual weakening through 120 hours. SSTs will remain
 in the 27 to 28 degrees C range, but with 10 to 15 knots of vertical
 wind shear expected through the forecast period, a forecast for
 gradual weakening seems realistic at this time. The latest intensity
 forecast is close to the previous, except that Lane is kept slightly
 stronger on days 4 and 5.
  
 Lane is forecast to pass south of the main Hawaiian Islands
 Wednesday and Thursday, potentially causing local impacts as it
 tracks west northwestward. Interests in those islands should watch
 the progress of Lane closely, since long-range forecast track and
 intensity errors can be large.
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  19/0900Z 12.9N 142.3W  110 KT 125 MPH
  12H  19/1800Z 13.2N 143.9W  100 KT 115 MPH
  24H  20/0600Z 13.5N 146.0W  100 KT 115 MPH
  36H  20/1800Z 13.7N 147.9W   95 KT 110 MPH
  48H  21/0600Z 13.9N 149.7W   90 KT 105 MPH
  72H  22/0600Z 14.3N 153.1W   80 KT  90 MPH
  96H  23/0600Z 15.2N 156.6W   70 KT  80 MPH
 120H  24/0600Z 17.0N 160.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
  
 $$
 Forecaster Houston