423
FONT13 KNHC 161453
PWSAT3
HURRICANE HELENE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006
1500 UTC SAT SEP 16 2006
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HELENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
18.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 45.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/HR.
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8)
BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HR POSITIONS KT
12 195N 469W 34 97 2(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
12 195N 469W 50 65 13(78) 1(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) X(79)
12 195N 469W 64 30 15(45) 2(47) X(47) 1(48) X(48) X(48)
24 204N 483W 34 55 33(88) 5(93) 1(94) 1(95) X(95) X(95)
24 204N 483W 50 5 46(51) 9(60) 2(62) 2(64) X(64) X(64)
24 204N 483W 64 1 24(25) 10(35) 1(36) 2(38) X(38) X(38)
36 211N 494W 34 11 47(58) 19(77) 7(84) 4(88) X(88) X(88)
36 211N 494W 50 1 18(19) 25(44) 7(51) 3(54) 2(56) X(56)
36 211N 494W 64 X 5( 5) 17(22) 5(27) 3(30) 1(31) X(31)
48 219N 506W 34 3 19(22) 30(52) 17(69) 10(79) 1(80) X(80)
48 219N 506W 50 X 3( 3) 17(20) 15(35) 10(45) 1(46) 1(47)
48 219N 506W 64 X 1( 1) 7( 8) 11(19) 5(24) 1(25) 1(26)
72 235N 535W 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 16(23) 30(53) 8(61) 2(63)
72 235N 535W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 19(25) 7(32) 2(34)
72 235N 535W 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 4(17) 1(18)
96 255N 565W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 18(20) 20(40) 9(49)
96 255N 565W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 12(18) 3(21)
96 255N 565W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 2(10)
120 285N 580W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 16(21) 12(33)
120 285N 580W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 7(14)
120 285N 580W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6)
- - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 70 75 80 85 90 85 80
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN/LANDSEA
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