206 
 WTNT23 KNHC 231446
 TCMAT3
 TROPICAL STORM LISA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  17
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL132004
 1500Z THU SEP 23 2004
  
 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.1N  41.7W AT 23/1500Z
 POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM
  
 PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 250 DEGREES AT   3 KT
  
 ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
 34 KT....... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
 12 FT SEAS..175NE 175SE 100SW 100NW.
 WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
 MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
  
 REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.1N  41.7W AT 23/1500Z
 AT 23/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.2N  41.5W
  
 FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 12.1N  42.0W
 MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
 34 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
  
 FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 12.3N  42.7W
 MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
 34 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
  
 FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 13.2N  43.2W
 MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
 50 KT... 25NE  25SE  25SW  25NW.
 34 KT... 60NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
  
 FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 14.5N  43.8W
 MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
 50 KT... 25NE  25SE  25SW  25NW.
 34 KT... 60NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
  
 FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 17.5N  45.0W
 MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
 50 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
 34 KT... 90NE  90SE  90SW  90NW.
  
 EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
 ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
  
 OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 21.5N  46.0W
 MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
  
 OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 24.5N  46.5W
 MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
  
 REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.1N  41.7W
  
 NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/2100Z
  
 FORECASTER LAWRENCE
  
  
 $$