338 
 WTPZ43 KNHC 302037
 TCDEP3
 
 HURRICANE JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132015
 200 PM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015
 
 After Jimena's cloud pattern appeared somewhat ragged this
 morning, it has recently become more symmetric and better organized.
 The latest infrared images indicate that a ring of cloud tops colder
 than -70 deg C surround the center, and the eye has increased in
 diameter and become more distinct.  The larger eye suggests that
 eyewall replacement could now be complete, and this is likely the
 reason why the hurricane has begun to re-intensify.  Dvorak
 classifications at 1800 UTC were 6.0/115 kt from SAB and 6.5/127 kt
 from TAFB, with the latest UW-CIMSS ADT value between these two
 estimates. Based on the latest appearance of Jimena, the initial
 wind speed is set near the high end of the estimates at 125 kt.
 
 As mentioned in previous discussions, Jimena is expected to remain
 in a low wind shear environment for the next several days.  However,
 the cyclone is expected to track over progressively cooler water,
 which should cause the hurricane to slowly weaken.  The official
 intensity forecast shows some short-term strengthening, following
 the current trend, and then predicts a slow decay.  This forecast is
 higher than all of the guidance during the next day or so, but falls
 in line with the SHIPS model from 36-120 h.
 
 Jimena is moving a little faster toward the west-northwest, 295/13
 kt.  This motion is expected to continue for about 24 hours while a
 subtropical ridge remains to the north and northeast of the
 cyclone.  After that time, Jimena is forecast to decelerate as
 steering currents weaken in response to an amplifying trough
 extending southwestward from the western United States.  There was
 little change in the latest model guidance, and the NHC forecast is
 largely an update of the previous one.  This forecast lies close to
 the GFS and ECMWF models.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  30/2100Z 14.7N 130.9W  125 KT 145 MPH
  12H  31/0600Z 15.2N 133.0W  135 KT 155 MPH
  24H  31/1800Z 16.0N 135.5W  125 KT 145 MPH
  36H  01/0600Z 16.6N 137.4W  115 KT 130 MPH
  48H  01/1800Z 17.1N 138.9W  105 KT 120 MPH
  72H  02/1800Z 18.0N 141.1W   95 KT 110 MPH
  96H  03/1800Z 18.8N 142.5W   85 KT 100 MPH
 120H  04/1800Z 19.8N 143.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
 
 $$
 Forecaster Cangialosi