189 
 WTPZ44 KNHC 192026
 TCDEP4
 HURRICANE HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP092006
 200 PM PDT SAT AUG 19 2006
  
 HECTOR'S OVERALL CONVECTION LOOKS A LITTLE MORE DISORGANIZED THIS
 AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH VISIBLE IMAGES RECENTLY SHOW A FAINT EYE
 BREAKING THROUGH THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. AN SSMIS MICROWAVE
 PASS AT 1515 UTC SHOWED A SMALL DISPLACEMENT OF THE LOWER AND
 MIDDLE-LEVEL CENTERS OF THE CYCLONE...CONFIRMING A SUSPICION FROM
 THIS MORNING. THIS STRUCTURE IS PROBABLY DUE TO A COMBINATION OF
 INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR...AS SEEN IN CIMSS ANALYSES...AND
 DRY STABLE AIR WHICH HAS INVADED THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE
 STORM. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN REDUCED TO 75 KT...IN BETWEEN
 THE T AND CI NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB...WHICH IS OUR USUAL
 OPERATIONAL PRACTICE FOR WEAKENING EASTERN PACIFIC CYCLONES OVER
 COOLER WATERS. A STEADY WEAKENING SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF
 THE DAY FOLLOWED BY A QUICKER DEMISE TOMORROW AFTER HECTOR
 ENCOUNTERS SSTS LESS THAN 24C AND WESTERLY WIND SHEAR GREATER THAN
 25 KT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE FSU
 SUPERENSEMBLE AND SHIPS.  
  
 QUIKSCAT AND SSMIS MICROWAVE PASSES FROM AROUND 1500 UTC WERE VERY
 HELPFUL IN ESTABLISHING AN INITIAL MOTION...295/11. RECENT MODEL
 GUIDANCE LOOKS QUITE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE WITH MOST
 MODELS CONTINUING ON A TRACK AROUND 300 DEGREES FOR A DAY OR TWO.
 THE UKMET CONTINUES TO BE ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE
 ENVELOPE UNAFFECTED BY A WEAK BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL
 RIDGE...WHILE THE NOGAPS BARRELS THE HURRICANE IN A NORTHWESTWARD
 FASHION.  WITH A WEAKENING CYCLONE...TRENDING SOUTH STILL SEEMS TO
 BE A GOOD IDEA AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE
 MODEL CONSENSUS. WIND RADII HAVE BEEN MODIFIED ON THE BASIS OF A
 1421 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS AND THIS GENERAL WIND STRUCTURE IS CARRIED
 THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF HECTOR'S LIFE.  
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      19/2100Z 18.3N 131.0W    75 KT
  12HR VT     20/0600Z 19.0N 132.4W    65 KT
  24HR VT     20/1800Z 19.8N 133.9W    50 KT
  36HR VT     21/0600Z 20.5N 135.1W    35 KT
  48HR VT     21/1800Z 21.0N 136.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
  72HR VT     22/1800Z 21.5N 139.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  96HR VT     23/1800Z 22.0N 143.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 120HR VT     24/1800Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BLAKE/KNABB