878 
 WTPZ42 KNHC 200857
 TCDEP2
 HURRICANE FAUSTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP072008
 200 AM PDT SUN JUL 20 2008
  
 THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN DURING THE
 LAST 6 HOURS AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE REMAINS 75 KT IN
 LINE WITH THE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES.
 HAVING SAID THAT...THE CYCLONE IS NOW ENCOUNTERING RAPIDLY FALLING
 SSTS AND WEAKENING SHOULD COMMENCE SOON.  IN FACT...WEAKENING
 SHOULD BE BRISK WITH THE SHIPS MODEL DISSIPATING THE SYSTEM IN A
 MERE 72 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DOES NOT SHOW NEARLY AS FAST A
 WEAKENING RATE AS SHIPS...BUT DOES INDICATE FAUSTO BECOMING A
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN 72 HOURS AND DEGENERATING INTO A REMNANT LOW
 IN 4 DAYS.
  
 FAUSTO CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD...OR 320/10...TOWARD A
 WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE PRODUCED BY A MID- TO UPPER-
 TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH JUST OFF THE WEST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. 
 A TURN TOWARD THE WEST IS EXPECTED IN A COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE
 PROGRESSIVELY SHALLOWER CYCLONE IS STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. 
 THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH TO BE IN
 BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE DYNAMICAL MODELS WHICH APPEAR TO HAVE A
 BETTER HANDLE ON THE RAPID WEAKENING.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      20/0900Z 17.2N 111.9W    75 KT
  12HR VT     20/1800Z 18.1N 113.0W    70 KT
  24HR VT     21/0600Z 19.3N 115.0W    65 KT
  36HR VT     21/1800Z 20.3N 117.1W    55 KT
  48HR VT     22/0600Z 21.0N 119.3W    45 KT
  72HR VT     23/0600Z 22.0N 123.0W    30 KT
  96HR VT     24/0600Z 22.5N 126.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 120HR VT     25/0600Z 23.0N 129.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
  
 $$
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