558 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 262058
 TCDEP1
 
 HURRICANE AMANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012014
 200 PM PDT MON MAY 26 2014
 
 After significant erosion of the deep convection in the southern
 portion of the eyewall, a resurgence of convective development has
 occurred in the past couple of hours, including the redevelopment
 of the CDO feature and a cloud-filled eye. However, an average of
 all available satellite intensity estimates indicates that Amanda
 has still weakened and is now a 105-kt category 3 hurricane.
 
 A 12-hour average motion of 335/04 kt was used for the advisory
 motion, in spite of the many wobbles in the track during the past
 few hours. Although the model guidance isn't quite the proverbial
 squashed spider pattern that typically suggests a slow and erratic
 motion, it isn't far from it. Amanda is expected to move slowly
 northward into a broad weakness in the subtropical ridge to the
 north of the cyclone during the next few days, during which time
 the steering currents are forecast to collapse. While the steering
 currents erode, Amanda is also forecast to become a significantly
 weaker and more shallow cyclone during that time, resulting in the
 cyclone meandering south of Socorro Island as a remnant low by Day
 5, if not sooner. The official forecast track remains close to a
 blend of the consensus model TVCE and the FSSE model.
 
 Deep-layer shear of more than 20 kt is expected to continue to
 affect Amanda for the next 24 hours or so, resulting in steady to
 rapid weakening during the forecast period. The NHC intensity
 forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and remains close to
 the intensity consensus model IVCN.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  26/2100Z 13.4N 111.8W  105 KT 120 MPH
  12H  27/0600Z 14.0N 112.0W   90 KT 105 MPH
  24H  27/1800Z 14.8N 112.2W   75 KT  85 MPH
  36H  28/0600Z 15.4N 112.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
  48H  28/1800Z 15.9N 112.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
  72H  29/1800Z 16.4N 111.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
  96H  30/1800Z 16.7N 111.7W   25 KT  30 MPH
 120H  31/1800Z 16.7N 112.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
 $$
 Forecaster Stewart