973 
 WTPZ42 KNHC 092031
 TCDEP2
 
 Hurricane Aletta Discussion Number  17
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP022018
 300 PM MDT Sat Jun 09 2018
 
 Aletta has rapidly weakened during the past several hours, with the
 main convection currently dissipating to the north and northeast of
 the now-exposed low-level center.  The initial intensity is reduced
 to a possibly generous 65 kt based on a combination of subjective
 and objective satellite intensity estimates.  Rapid weakening should
 continue due to a combination of shear, decreasing sea surface
 temperatures along the forecast track, and entrainment of dry air.
 Based on current trends, the new intensity forecast shows a faster
 demise for Aletta than the previous advisory, with the system now
 forecast to weaken to a depression by 36 h, and degenerate to a
 remnant low by 48 h.
 
 The initial motion is quite uncertain due to Aletta being south of
 where the earlier microwave fixes indicated it to be and due to the
 exposed center moving southwestward.  This advisory will use a
 longer-term motion of 275/5.  Most of the track guidance forecasts
 the cyclone to resume a west-northwestward motion over the next few
 hours, then again turn westward by 24-36 h.  After that time the
 remnants of Aletta are expected to move slowly west-southwestward.
 The new forecast track follows this basic scenario, but it lies well
 to the south of the center of the guidance envelope and the
 consensus models based on the current trends.  An alternate scenario
 is that Aletta never makes the west-northwestward turn, which would
 result in the decaying system tracking south of the new forecast
 track.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  09/2100Z 16.1N 113.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
  12H  10/0600Z 16.6N 114.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
  24H  10/1800Z 17.0N 115.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
  36H  11/0600Z 17.1N 117.0W   25 KT  30 MPH
  48H  11/1800Z 16.9N 118.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  72H  12/1800Z 16.6N 120.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  96H  13/1800Z 16.0N 121.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 120H  14/1800Z 15.5N 122.5W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
 $$
 Forecaster Beven