766 
 WTPA41 PHFO 111451
 TCDCP1
 
 TROPICAL STORM PALI DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP012016
 500 AM HST MON JAN 11 2016
  
 DUE TO THE LACK OF ANY RECENT MICROWAVE OR SCATTEROMETER PASSES OVER
 THE CORE OF PALI...THERE IS A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE
 CURRENT LOCATION AND INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM. THE TRANSIENT WARM
 SPOTS THAT HAD BEEN OBSERVED LAST EVENING HAVE DISAPPEARED. THERE
 CONTINUES TO BE DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE APPARENT CENTER ACCORDING
 TO THE LATEST INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY...SO WE ASSUME PALI HAS NOT
 WEAKENED SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE LATEST
 ESTIMATES OF ENVIRONMENTAL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IN THE VICINITY OF
 PALI WERE 10 TO 15 KT FROM THE SOUTH ACCORDING TO THE LATEST SHIPS
 AND UW/CIMSS GUIDANCE. THE MOST RECENT SUBJECTIVE SATELLITE DVORAK
 INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE 3.0/45 KT FROM HFO AND SAB AND 2.0/30 KT
 FROM JTWC. THE LATEST UW/CIMSS ADT ESTIMATE WAS 3.4/53 KT. BASED ON
 THESE ESTIMATES...WE HAVE WEAKENED THE INITIAL INTENSITY TO 50 KT.
  
 THE INITIAL MOTION FOR THIS ADVISORY IS 065/04 KT. PALI IS A RATHER
 SMALL CYCLONE AT A RELATIVELY LOW LATITUDE...SO BETA DRIFT IS A
 MINIMAL STEERING MECHANISM. THERE ARE ALSO NO OBVIOUS LARGE SCALE
 SYNOPTIC FORCING SYSTEMS THAT MIGHT CAUSE PALI TO BEGIN ACCELERATING
 AWAY FROM ITS CURRENT LOCATION. THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN THE VICINITY
 OF AN EAST-NORTHEAST TO WEST-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED TROUGH BETWEEN THE
 SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH NEAR LATITUDE 22N...AND WESTERLY FLOW
 TO THE SOUTH ALONG THE EQUATOR. THE LATEST RELIABLE TRACK GUIDANCE
 REMAINS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING PALI CONTINUING TO MOVE
 EAST SLOWLY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS...THEN CURVING TOWARD THE
 SOUTHEAST AND THEN THE SOUTH FROM 24-36 HOURS. AFTER THAT...THE
 CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST. THE LATEST
 OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN NUDGED A BIT TO THE EAST OF THE
 PREVIOUS TRACK THROUGH 36 HOURS. THE NEW TRACK IS NEAR THE OLD ONE
 BEYOND 36 HOURS. NOTE THAT THIS FORECAST CONTINUES TO KEEP PALI WELL
 EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL DATE LINE THROUGH DAY 5.
  
 SINCE THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF PALI...
 CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN THE LATEST INTENSITY FORECAST. MODEL
 GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...HIGH
 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AND RELATIVELY LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ALONG THE
 FORECAST TRACK. THE LATEST INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED DOWN
 A BIT DUE TO THE LOWER INITIAL INTENSITY. THE LATEST IVCN STILL
 SUGGESTS THAT PALI MAY INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36
 HOURS...SO WE HAVE KEPT THIS TREND IN THE UPDATED FORECAST. AFTER
 THAT...THE LATEST FORECAST WEAKENS PALI SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE
 PREVIOUS ONE BY 48 HOURS. THE DAYS 4 AND 5 FORECASTS ARE A LITTLE
 STRONGER NOW SINCE WE ARE NOT SENDING PALI AS CLOSE TO THE EQUATOR
 AS EARLIER FORECASTS INDICATED. 
  
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  11/1500Z  8.3N 172.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
  12H  12/0000Z  8.4N 172.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
  24H  12/1200Z  7.8N 171.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
  36H  13/0000Z  6.8N 171.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
  48H  13/1200Z  5.6N 171.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
  72H  14/1200Z  4.0N 173.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
  96H  15/1200Z  3.5N 174.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 120H  16/1200Z  3.0N 176.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
  
 $$
 FORECASTER HOUSTON