979 
 WTPA42 PHFO 222046
 TCDCP2
 
 HURRICANE NEKI DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP032009
 1100 AM HST THU OCT 22 2009
 
 HURRICANE NEKI IS SLOWLY WEAKENING AS STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR
 CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE SYSTEM. FIXES FROM CPHC...JTWC...AND SAB
 ALL CAME IN WITH CI VALUES OF 5.0 WHICH SETS THE INITIAL INTENSITY
 AT 90 KT. 
 
 THE INITIAL POSITION HAS BEEN SHIFTED TO THE LEFT WITH THE SYSTEM
 MOVING A BIT SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THIS WAS MAINLY DUE
 TO A RECENT SSMIS PASS AND EARLY MORNING VISIBLE IMAGERY. MODELS
 ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A CONTINUED NORTH-NORTHEAST MOTION IN
 THE SHORT TERM THEN A TURN MORE TO THE NORTHEAST WITH GRADUAL
 ACCELERATION EXPECTED AS THE SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH AN ENCROACHING
 FRONT AND ITS ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE LATEST FORECAST
 TRACK IS PRETTY MUCH DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE BUT SLIGHTLY
 TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST MAINLY DUE TO THE WESTWARD
 SHIFT OF THE INITIAL POSITION.
 
 NEKI WILL REMAIN OVER 26 C OR WARMER WATER THROUGH 48 HOURS...THEN
 MOVE ACROSS COOLER WATERS THROUGH THE REST OF ITS FORECAST TRACK.
 THE LATEST UW-CIMSS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR PRODUCT SHOWS SOUTHWEST
 SHEAR OF 24 KT. THIS STRONG SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE
 NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND WILL BE THE PRIMARY KEY IN THE WEAKENING
 PROCESS. NEKI IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM BY 72
 HOURS...THEN TO A DEPRESSION BY 120 HOURS WHEN THE SYSTEM WILL
 LIKELY BE CLASSIFIED AS EXTRATROPICAL. 
 
 ON ITS CURRENT TRACK...NEKI WILL BE IMPACTING THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA
 NATIONAL MONUMENT NEAR FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS TONIGHT AND
 FRIDAY...AND A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS FOR THE MONUMENT FROM
 NIHOA ISLAND TO MARO REEF. LARGE SWELLS FROM THE SOUTH WILL BUILD
 AND CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
 WARNING AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH SEAS GREATER THAN 20 FT AND
 SURF UP 25 FT EXPECTED. 
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      22/2100Z 20.8N 166.3W    90 KT
  12HR VT     23/0600Z 21.8N 166.1W    85 KT
  24HR VT     23/1800Z 23.4N 165.7W    80 KT
  36HR VT     24/0600Z 25.0N 164.8W    75 KT
  48HR VT     24/1800Z 27.0N 163.6W    65 KT
  72HR VT     25/1800Z 31.0N 160.7W    55 KT
  96HR VT     26/1800Z 35.6N 156.8W    40 KT
 120HR VT     27/1800Z 40.9N 151.9W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BURKE