766 
 WTPA41 PHFO 242059
 TCDCP1
 
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION KILO DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP032015
 1100 AM HST MON AUG 24 2015
 
 THE CENTER OF KILO APPEARS TO BE UNDER A RECENT BURST OF DEEP
 CONVECTION. OBJECTIVE DVORAK SATELLITE ANALYSIS INTENSITY ESTIMATES
 RANGED FROM 2.0...30 KT...FROM PHFO...AND 2.5...35 KT...FROM SAB
 AND JTWC. BASED ON ITS CURRENT APPEARANCE WE HAVE KEPT KILO AS A 30
 KT DEPRESSION WITH THIS ADVISORY PACKAGE. 
 
 THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 340 AT 6 KT. KILO IS TRACKING AROUND
 THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A MID LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED JUST TO
 THE EAST OF THE BIG ISLAND. OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS THE
 ANTICYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN...AND KILO WILL BE LEFT IN A LARGE
 AREA OF WEAK STEERING CURRENTS AT DAYS 2 AND 3. AT DAYS 4 AND
 5...DEEP LAYER RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BECOME ESTABLISHED NORTH OF
 KILO...FORCING THE SYSTEM BACK ON A WESTWARD TRACK. THE CURRENT
 FORECAST FOLLOWS CLOSELY WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WHICH LIES
 BETWEEN THE HWRF AND GFDL ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE TRACK AND THE
 GLOBAL AND CONSENSUS MODELS WHICH LIE TO THE LEFT. 
 
 THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS ESSENTIALLY THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS
 FORECAST BUT REMAINS SOMEWHAT CHALLENGING. WARM SEA SURFACE
 TEMPERATURES AND RELAXING SHEAR IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
 DAYS. KILO IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN TO A TROPICAL STORM
 TONIGHT AND CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH 96 HOURS WHEN KILO IS
 FORECAST TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH. ON DAYS 4 AND 5...THE 
 INTENSIFICATION TREND MAY BE ARRESTED AS KILO BEGINS TO EXPERIENCE 
 MODERATE WESTERLY SHEAR. THE LATEST FORECAST FOLLOWS DOWN THE MIDDLE
 OF MOST GUIDANCE AND IS LOWER THAN HWFI AND GFDI BUT SLIGHTLY HIGHER
 THAN SHIPS AND AVNI. 
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  24/2100Z 16.7N 167.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
  12H  25/0600Z 17.5N 168.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
  24H  25/1800Z 18.3N 168.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
  36H  26/0600Z 19.0N 168.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
  48H  26/1800Z 19.4N 168.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
  72H  27/1800Z 19.8N 169.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
  96H  28/1800Z 20.2N 170.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
 120H  29/1800Z 20.5N 171.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BURKE