062 
 WTNT43 KNHC 131515
 TCDAT3
 HURRICANE CHARLEY DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 11 AM EDT FRI AUG 13 2004
 
 AIRCRAFT...SATELLITE AND RADAR INDICATE THAT CHARLEY REMAINS ON
 TRACK WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 360/16.  THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE
 IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT THE MOTION ACCELERATING
 NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS AFTER WHICH CHARLEY IS
 EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL.  THE FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO
 THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY EXCEPT ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT.  THE
 FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY IS FOR WINDS NEAR HURRICANE FORCE
 ALONG AND NEAR THE GEORGIA COAST AS CHARLEY GOES BY AND A HURRICANE
 WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED TO ALERT TO THIS POSSIBILITY.  A TROPICAL
 STORM WATCH IS ALSO EXTENDED NORTHWARD ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA
 COAST.
  
 AN EYEWALL DROPSONDE AT ABOUT 12Z INDICATED THAT THE MAXIMUM SURFACE
 WINDS ARE STILL NEAR 95 KTS.  A CLOSED 10-MILE DIAMETER EYEWALL
 PERSISTS AND THE PRESSURE HAS DROPPED 5 MB TO 965 MB DURING THE
 PAST TWO HOURS SUGGESTING THAT THERE COULD BE SOME ADDITIONAL
 STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE LANDFALL ON THE
 FLORIDA WEST COAST.  THEREAFTER THE GFS AND OTHER MODELS SHOW THE
 STRONG WINDS EXPANDING ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE STORM AS IT MOVES
 NEAR THE U.S. EAST COAST.
 
 FORECASTER LAWRENCE
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      13/1500Z 25.2N  82.8W    95 KT
  12HR VT     14/0000Z 27.7N  82.6W   100 KT
  24HR VT     14/1200Z 31.4N  81.5W    60 KT...INLAND
  36HR VT     15/0000Z 35.8N  79.2W    45 KT...INLAND
  48HR VT     15/1200Z 40.2N  76.8W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
  72HR VT     16/1200Z 46.5N  71.0W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
  96HR VT     17/1200Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROOPCAL LOW
  
  
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