691 
 WTPZ44 KNHC 060850
 TCDEP4
 
 HURRICANE NORBERT DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142014
 200 AM PDT SAT SEP 06 2014
 
 Norbert continued to rapidly intensify through about 06Z.  Since
 then, the hurricane appears to have peaked in intensity, with the
 eye becoming less distinct and the cold cloud tops in the eyewall
 becoming asymmetric.  Satellite intensity estimates at 06Z were 115
 kt from TAFB and 102 kt from SAB, while the CIMMS ADT estimates
 peaked at 110 kt.  Based on these data, the initial intensity is
 increased to 105 kt as a compromise between these estimates and the
 decay of the cloud pattern since 06Z.
 
 The initial motion is now 315/7.  The track forecast reasoning
 remains unchanged, as Norbert will be steered around the western
 periphery of a mid-level ridge centered over the southern United
 States through 48 hours. After that time, the ridge weakens as a
 mid-latitude trough moves into the U.S. West Coast, which should
 result in a weakening of the steering currents.  The track guidance
 has come into better agreement that Norbert should move
 northeastward or eastward after 72 hours, with several of the models
 showing the remnants making landfall over the northern portion of
 the Baja California peninsula.  The new forecast track reflects this
 change in the guidance by showing an northeastward and eastward
 drift after 72 hours.  The new forecast track is a little to the
 right of the center of the guidance envelope through 48 hours, and
 after that it is slower than the consensus model TVCE.
 
 The forecast track takes Norbert over steadily decreasing sea
 surface temperatures.  The cyclone should thus weaken through the
 forecast period.  Despite the higher initial intensity compared to
 6 hours ago, the guidance is in good agreement that Norbert should
 decay into a remnant low in about 3 days.  The new intensity
 forecast is increased from that of the previous forecast through 36
 hours, and then is similar to the previous forecast.  The new
 forecast is in best agreement with the LGEM model.
 
 Moisture from the remnants of Dolly and the Pacific ITCZ is being
 advected northward by the outer circulation of Norbert across
 northern Mexico and into the southwestern United States. This could
 result in heavy rains and life-threatening flash flooding in these
 areas during the next few days. Please see information from your
 local weather office for more details.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  06/0900Z 24.6N 113.4W  105 KT 120 MPH
  12H  06/1800Z 25.2N 114.4W  100 KT 115 MPH
  24H  07/0600Z 26.0N 115.6W   85 KT 100 MPH
  36H  07/1800Z 26.9N 116.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
  48H  08/0600Z 27.8N 117.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
  72H  09/0600Z 29.5N 117.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  96H  10/0600Z 30.0N 116.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 120H  11/0600Z 30.0N 116.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
 $$
 Forecaster Beven