360 
 WTPZ42 KNHC 251437
 TCDEP2
 
 TROPICAL STORM FRANK DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072016
 900 AM MDT MON JUL 25 2016
 
 Deep convection is bursting near the center of Frank, with its
 asymmetric pattern on infrared images suggesting that shear
 continues to play a significant role in the storm's structure.
 Intensity estimates have a rather wide spread this morning, from 35
 to 60 kt. Since the storm overall looks a little better than
 overnight, the initial 55-kt wind speed is kept the same from
 earlier, although it could still be generous.  Frank has about 24
 hours left before it crosses the 26 deg C isotherm, which will
 likely cause gradual weakening thereafter.  The storm still has a
 chance of intensify during the first 24 h, but the official forecast
 reflects no significant change in intensity, partially due to
 uncertainty in the initial wind speed.  Frank is likely to become a
 remnant low in about 3 days due to it moving over cool 23 deg C
 waters.  The latest forecast is a bit lower than the previous one
 and remains close to a SHIPS/LGEM consensus.
 
 Microwave data show that Frank has started to move slowly westward,
 with an initial motion estimate of 280/5.  All of the global models
 predict the subtropical ridge to strengthen over the next couple of
 days, which should steer the storm west-northwestward with some
 acceleration.  Late in the forecast period, the shallow remnant low
 is likely to move mostly westward in the low-level flow.  The model
 spread has notably decreased since yesterday, with only some minor
 speed differences.  Thus, no significant changes were made to the
 previous track forecast, which lies close to the dynamical model
 consensus.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  25/1500Z 20.4N 113.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
  12H  26/0000Z 20.5N 114.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
  24H  26/1200Z 20.9N 116.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
  36H  27/0000Z 21.5N 118.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
  48H  27/1200Z 22.3N 119.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
  72H  28/1200Z 23.8N 123.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  96H  29/1200Z 24.5N 125.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 120H  30/1200Z 24.7N 128.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
 $$
 Forecaster Blake