321 
 WTPZ42 KNHC 200241
 TCDEP2
 HURRICANE FAUSTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP072008
 800 PM PDT SAT JUL 19 2008
  
 THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN THIS
 EVENING...WITH A SMALL IRREGULAR CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST OBSCURING
 THE BANDING EYE VISIBLE IN MICROWAVE IMAGERY.  THE DVORAK SATELLITE
 INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN UNCHANGED...AND SO IS THE INITIAL
 INTENSITY...SUSTAINING AT 75 KT.  A 6 TO 12 HOUR PERIOD OF
 MODEST STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE A GRADUAL WEAKENING
 COMMENCES.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE ICON
 CONSENSUS...INDICATING A GRADUAL DECLINE IN THE CYCLONE'S INTENSITY
 THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE 5 DAY PERIOD.  THIS WEAKENING TREND IS
 PRIMARILY DUE TO DECREASING SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND A HINT OF
 INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AROUND DAY 4 AND 5.
  
 FAUSTO IS MOVING AT ABOUT 310/10...WITHIN A WEAKNESS IN THE
 SUBTROPICAL RIDGE PRODUCED BY A MID TO UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH
 JUST OFF THE WEST COAST OF THE U.S.  LITTLE CHANGE IN FORWARD
 MOTION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 3 DAYS...AT WHICH TIME FAUSTO
 SHOULD PROBABLY START TO TURN MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST...IN
 RESPONSE TO THE RIDGE REESTABLISHING TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. 
 THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND IS
 DERIVED FROM THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.
   
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      20/0300Z 16.3N 111.0W    75 KT
  12HR VT     20/1200Z 17.1N 112.2W    70 KT
  24HR VT     21/0000Z 18.3N 114.0W    65 KT
  36HR VT     21/1200Z 19.4N 116.0W    55 KT
  48HR VT     22/0000Z 20.6N 118.1W    50 KT
  72HR VT     23/0000Z 22.1N 122.3W    35 KT
  96HR VT     24/0000Z 23.5N 126.0W    30 KT
 120HR VT     25/0000Z 24.5N 129.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
  
 $$
 FORECASTER ROBERTS/FRANKLIN