930 
 WTPZ43 KNHC 130838
 TCDEP3
 
 HURRICANE CRISTINA DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032014
 200 AM PDT FRI JUN 13 2014
 
 After going through a remarkable rapid intensification yesterday,
 Cristina has now rapidly weakened at a similar rate.  Microwave
 imagery suggest that the eyewall is about 50 percent open, and
 only occasional hints of an eye can be seen on conventional
 satellite data.  The initial wind speed is lowered to 90 kt as a
 blend of the Dvorak estimates.  However this value is more uncertain
 than normal owing to a rather large spread in the satellite
 intensity estimates from various agencies.
 
 Decreasing SSTS, along with increasing shear and dry air aloft,
 should generally continue to weaken Cristina.  Most of the models do
 suggest a slower weakening rate than what has recently been
 observed, which seems reasonable since the environment isn't
 extremely hostile.  The NHC intensity forecast is reduced from the
 previous one, mostly to account for the steep drop in the initial
 wind speed, and is close to the intensity consensus.   Transition
 into a remnant low seems likely in about 3-4 days when Cristina is
 surrounded by very dry air and over cool waters.
 
 The cyclone is now moving to the northwest at about 7 kt.  A
 northwestward to west-northwestward motion is expected during the
 next day or two while Cristina is steered by a mid-level ridge
 over northern Mexico.  After that time, the weakened storm should
 turn westward, steered primarily by the low-level flow.  The only
 notable change to the track guidance on this cycle is that Cristina
 continues the west-northwestward motion for a little longer before
 taking the westward turn.  The NHC track forecast is adjusted
 slightly to the north beyond 48 hours, following the trend in the
 latest guidance, but is otherwise virtually unchanged.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  13/0900Z 17.7N 109.1W   90 KT 105 MPH
  12H  13/1800Z 18.3N 110.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
  24H  14/0600Z 19.0N 111.1W   70 KT  80 MPH
  36H  14/1800Z 19.5N 112.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
  48H  15/0600Z 19.8N 112.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
  72H  16/0600Z 20.2N 114.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
  96H  17/0600Z 20.5N 116.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 120H  18/0600Z 20.5N 118.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
 $$
 Forecaster Blake