688 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 261437
 TCDEP1
 
 HURRICANE AMANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012014
 800 AM PDT MON MAY 26 2014
 
 Amanda has changed little during the past 6 hours, including an
 intermittent eye embedded within a ragged CDO feature containing
 cloud tops colder than -70C. A blend of final T-numbers and current
 intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB, and an ADT value of T6.3/122
 kt, yields an average of 114 kt. Thus, the initial intensity of
 Amanda has been lowered to 115 kt for this advisory.
 
 Smoothing through the many fits and starts yields a 12-hour average
 motion of 345/04 kt, which is used for the advisory motion.
 Otherwise, there are no significant changes to the previous
 advisory track or reasoning. Amanda is expected to move slowly
 north-northwestward to northward between a broad mid-level trough
 to its west and a weak subtropical ridge situated to its east over
 Mexico for the next 72 hours or so. After which some slow erratic
 motion is possible when the cyclone is expected to weaken into
 a shallow system and become trapped within weak steering currents.
 The global and regional models are in good agreement on this
 developing scenario. As a result, the official forecast track is
 essentially just an update of the previous advisory track, and is
 close to the consensus model TVCE and the FSSE model.
 
 The deep-layer vertical wind shear across Amanda is assessed at
 around 25 kt by both the GFS-based SHIPS model and UW-CIMSS, and
 these strong shear conditions are expected to continue for at least
 the next 36 hours. As a result, steady to rapid weakening is
 forecast to begin later today, especially if significant cold
 upwelling develops beneath the slow-moving hurricane.  The NHC
 intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and closely
 follows the intensity consensus model IVCN.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  26/1500Z 13.2N 111.6W  115 KT 135 MPH
  12H  27/0000Z 14.0N 111.9W  100 KT 115 MPH
  24H  27/1200Z 14.9N 112.2W   85 KT 100 MPH
  36H  28/0000Z 15.7N 112.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
  48H  28/1200Z 16.1N 112.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
  72H  29/1200Z 16.8N 112.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
  96H  30/1200Z 17.1N 111.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 120H  31/1200Z 17.3N 111.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
 $$
 Forecaster Stewart