949 
 WTPZ42 KNHC 091433
 TCDEP2
 
 Hurricane Aletta Discussion Number  16
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP022018
 900 AM MDT Sat Jun 09 2018
 
 Recent microwave data indicates that the cloud pattern of Aletta
 continues to lose organization due to southerly vertical wind
 shear, with the remains of the eye located near the south edge of
 the main convective area.  The initial intensity is reduced to a
 possibly generous 85 kt based on a combination of subjective and
 objective satellite intensity estimates.
 
 Rapid weakening should continue due to a combination of shear,
 decreasing sea surface temperatures along the forecast track, and
 entrainment of dry air.  Aletta is currently forecast to drop below
 hurricane strength in less than 24 h, weaken to a depression by 48
 h, and subsequently degenerate to a remnant low by 72 h.  The new
 intensity forecast follows the trend of the tightly clustered
 intensity guidance.
 
 The initial motion is now 295/5.  The cyclone should move generally
 northwestward around the southwestern portion of a mid-level ridge
 over northwestern Mexico during the next day or so.  After Aletta
 weakens and becomes a more vertically shallow system, it should turn
 westward, and then southwestward, in the low-level trade wind flow.
 In contrast to the last advisory, the guidance envelope for this
 advisory has has shifted somewhat to the north.  The new forecast
 track is similar to, but just north of the previous forecast, and it
 lies to the south of the center of the guidance envelope and the
 group of consensus aids.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  09/1500Z 16.4N 113.1W   85 KT 100 MPH
  12H  10/0000Z 16.9N 113.9W   70 KT  80 MPH
  24H  10/1200Z 17.3N 115.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
  36H  11/0000Z 17.4N 116.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
  48H  11/1200Z 17.4N 117.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
  72H  12/1200Z 17.0N 119.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  96H  13/1200Z 16.5N 121.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 120H  14/1200Z 15.5N 122.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
 $$
 Forecaster Beven