426 
 WTPA41 PHFO 110859
 TCDCP1
 
 TROPICAL STORM PALI DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP012016
 1100 PM HST SUN JAN 10 2016
  
 WARM SPOTS CONTINUE TO SHOW UP IN INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AS THIS
 ADVISORY FOR PALI IS BEING PREPARED. BASED ON A 0513Z AMSU AND A
 0541Z SSMIS PASS OVER THE SYSTEM...THESE WARM SPOTS SEEM TO COINCIDE
 WITH THE ESTIMATED CENTER OF PALI. THE OVERALL SATELLITE
 PRESENTATION OF THE CYCLONE...INCLUDING THE OUTFLOW STRUCTURE...ALSO
 CONTINUES TO IMPROVE THIS EVENING. THE LATEST ESTIMATES OF
 ENVIRONMENTAL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IN THE VICINITY OF PALI WERE 4 TO
 10 KT FROM THE SOUTH ACCORDING TO THE LATEST SHIPS AND UW/CIMSS
 GUIDANCE. THE MOST RECENT SUBJECTIVE SATELLITE DVORAK INTENSITY
 ESTIMATES WERE 3.0/45 KT FROM HFO AND SAB AND 2.5/35 KT FROM JTWC.
 THE LATEST UW/CIMSS ADT ESTIMATE WAS 3.9/63 KT. BASED ON THE OVERALL
 IMPROVING SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF PALI...WE HAVE INCREASED THE
 INITIAL INTENSITY TO 55 KT.
  
 THE INITIAL MOTION FOR THIS ADVISORY REMAINS A VERY SLOW 065/03 KT.
 PALI IS A RATHER SMALL CYCLONE AT A RELATIVELY LOW LATITUDE...SO
 BETA DRIFT IS A MINIMAL STEERING MECHANISM. THERE ARE ALSO NO LARGE
 SCALE SYNOPTIC FORCING SYSTEMS THAT MIGHT CAUSE PALI TO BEGIN
 ACCELERATING AWAY FROM ITS CURRENT LOCATION. THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN
 THE VICINITY OF AN EAST-NORTHEAST TO WEST-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED TROUGH
 BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH NEAR LATITUDE 23N...AND
 WESTERLY FLOW TO THE SOUTH NEAR THE EQUATOR. AS NOTED IN THE
 PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...TROPICAL CYCLONES NEAR TROUGHS LIKE THIS...
 WHICH ARE SIMILAR TO MONSOON TROUGHS...OFTEN MEANDER AND MAKE
 MULTIPLE LOOPS WITHIN THE TROUGH. THE LATEST RELIABLE TRACK GUIDANCE
 REMAINS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING PALI CONTINUING TO MOVE
 EAST SLOWLY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THEN CURVING TOWARD THE
 SOUTHEAST AND THEN THE SOUTH THROUGH 48 HOURS. AFTER THAT...THE
 CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST...WITH A SLIGHT
 INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE LATEST OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK HAS
 BEEN NUDGED A BIT TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK THROUGH 48
 HOURS. THE NEW TRACK THEN IS NEAR THE OLD ONE BY DAY 3...BUT IT HAS
 PALI MOVING MORE TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST ON DAYS 4 AND 5. NOTE
 THAT THIS FORECAST CONTINUES TO KEEP PALI WELL EAST OF THE
 INTERNATIONAL DATE LINE THROUGH DAY 5.
  
 SINCE THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF PALI...
 CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN THE LATEST INTENSITY FORECAST. MODEL
 GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...HIGH
 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AND RELATIVELY LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ALONG THE
 FORECAST TRACK. THE LATEST INTENSITY FORECAST IS GIVING A NOD TOWARD
 THE APPARENT IMPROVEMENT OF THE STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM IN MICROWAVE
 AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. ASSUMING THIS TREND CONTINUES...SOME
 ADDITIONAL SLOW INTENSIFICATION SEEMS REASONABLE. THE CURRENT
 FORECAST DOES NOT EXPLICITLY INTENSIFY PALI TO A HURRICANE BEFORE IT
 BEGINS MOVING SOUTHWARD BEYOND 36 HOURS. HOWEVER...IT WOULD NOT BE
 SURPRISING TO SEE IT BRIEFLY BECOME A MINIMAL HURRICANE. NOTE ALSO
 THAT THE LATEST INTENSITY FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER ON DAYS 4 AND
 5 SINCE PALI IS NOW FORECAST TO REMAIN A BIT FARTHER NORTH OF THE
 EQUATOR.
 
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  11/0900Z  7.9N 173.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
  12H  11/1800Z  8.1N 172.9W   60 KT  70 MPH
  24H  12/0600Z  8.0N 172.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
  36H  12/1800Z  7.3N 171.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
  48H  13/0600Z  6.4N 171.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
  72H  14/0600Z  4.4N 172.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
  96H  15/0600Z  3.5N 174.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 120H  16/0600Z  3.0N 176.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
  
 $$
 FORECASTER HOUSTON